The company's net profit in the first three quarters of 2022 was + 37.57% compared with the same period last year, and the performance was in line with expectations. Wind power installation increased significantly in the third quarter compared with the second quarter, driving the company's leaf sales volume. The decline in wind power blade prices is mainly due to the decline in raw materials, and overall profits are still improving. The trend of large-scale fan continues to deduce, the demand for large-leaf blades is strong, and the company's blade product structure is expected to usher in obvious structural optimization in the fourth quarter of this year and next year. To maintain the company's annual homing net profit forecast of 287x50,577 million yuan in 2022-23-24, with reference to the comparable company valuation level, give the company 2023 20xPE, lower the company target price to 11 yuan (the original target price is 14 yuan), and maintain the "buy" rating.
The net profit of homing in the first three quarters of 2022 was + 37.57% compared with the same period last year, and the performance was in line with expectations. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company realized operating income of 10.55 billion yuan,-1.94% of the same period last year, and net profit of 208 million yuan, + 37.57% of the same period last year. Among them, the company's 2022Q3 realized operating income of 3.416 billion yuan in a single quarter, + 9.08% year-on-year; realized net profit of 66 million yuan, + 298.32%; and deducted non-return net profit of 51 million yuan.
The single-quarter gross profit margin was 12.33%, an increase of 0.76pct over the same period last year, and an increase of 2.78pcts compared with the same period last year; the net profit margin was 1.34%, an increase of 0.32pcts over the same period last year, and a slight decrease of 0.02pct compared with the previous year. In the first three quarters, the operating income decreased compared with the same period last year, affected by the decrease in revenue from the wind power plate and the automobile sector. By complying with the trend of the industry, the company will layout big-leaf products, broaden the R & D channels, and keep the order quantity sufficient.
The volume of leaves was obvious in the third quarter, and the price of raw materials drove the unit price of the product down from the previous quarter. 2022Q3 company wind power blade output 2.40GW, month-on-month ratio + 28.34%; income 951 million yuan, month-on-month ratio-12.43%; price 396 million yuan / GW, month-on-month comparison-31.84% month-on-month company wind power blade output 6.23GW, income 3.424 billion yuan, price 550 million yuan / GW. The output and income of rail transit spare parts increased by 13.17% and 12.05% respectively, the output and income of auto parts increased by 23.28% and 11.17% respectively, and the price of auto parts increased by-9.82%. Wind power installation increased significantly in the third quarter compared with the second quarter, driving the company's leaf sales volume, the decline in wind power blade prices is mainly due to the decline in raw materials, overall gross profit margin still increased.
The bidding of wind power is higher than expected, and the trend of large-scale blade is obvious. Data released by the National Energy Administration show that in September 2022, wind power installed 3.1GW was + 72.22% compared with the same period last year, and the month-on-month improvement was significant compared with + 156.20% month-on-month wind power installation in September. It is expected that the pace of wind power installation will accelerate in the fourth quarter, and the high wind power installation rate is expected to last until next year. The trend of large-scale fan continues to deduce, the diameter of impeller continues to grow, and the demand for large-blade blades is exuberant. From the product structure dimension, it is expected that the company's leaf product structure will usher in obvious structural optimization in the fourth quarter of this year and next year, and the company's profitability is expected to improve.
Deep ploughing the fields of wind power, rail transit and automobile to realize the new layout of the project. Wind turbine blade business is the company's main business, the company has mastered the core technology and innovation capabilities in this field, and actively comply with the market trend of large-scale blades for R & D. we expect that the performance of wind turbine blades will be further improved and bring more revenue for the company. The company in the field of rail transportation adopts a sound development strategy to contribute stable income and cash flow. Due to the repeated domestic epidemic situation and the war between Russia and Ukraine, the cost of raw materials, energy and logistics in Europe has risen. The company expects the automotive business to run the risk of operating losses for the whole of 2022, but as the strategic center shifts to the Asia-Pacific region, and the layout of new energy vehicles, the company's automotive business is expected to reduce losses in the future.
Risk factors: large fluctuations in raw material prices; lower-than-expected wind power installation; risk of wind power policy adjustment; automobile sector affected by local epidemic and Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to be depressed.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: as the leading enterprise of domestic wind power blade, it fully benefits from the high business cycle of wind power industry brought by national policy, and the rapid development period of volume and profit. With the continuous promotion of large-scale wind power blades and the maturity of independent research and development technology, the company's industry market share is expected to further increase. At the same time, the company is making great efforts to develop the rail industry, which will help to improve the overall profitability of the company. We maintain the company's homing net profit forecast of RMB 2877,577 million in 2022-23-24, and the corresponding EPS forecast is RMB 0.36According to the valuation level of comparable companies (selecting Sinopec, Zhenan Technology and Top Group, which have similar businesses in wind power blade, rail transit and automotive industry as comparable companies, with an average PE of 22x in 2023), and give the company 2023 20xPE Lower the company's target price to 11 yuan (the original target price is 14 yuan) to maintain the "buy" rating.
