Items:
According to the company's quarterly report for 2022, 22Q1-3 achieved operating income of 3.75 billion yuan, YOY+0.2%; realized net profit of 160 million yuan, YOY-11.6%, net profit rate was 4.3%, and non-homed net profit was 124 million yuan, and YOY-24.0%, deducted 3.30% non-homed net profit. 1.05 pcts. Single Q3 achieves operating income of 1.214 billion yuan, YOY-1.3%; return net profit of 35 million yuan, YOY-34.5%, return net interest rate of 2.9% and non-return net profit of 36 million yuan, YOY-21.7%, deduction of 2.99% non-return net interest rate of 0.8pct.
Comments:
Domestic business is under pressure and overseas growth is steady. 1) domestic sector: from the perspective of Q3 revenue, the domestic business is obviously under pressure. The company mainly optimizes the channel structure through the "three links marketing" model, increases the joint rate from the point of view of package design to expand the guest list value, and begins to promote smart stores this year to enhance customers' insight and monitoring ability of transaction transformation. The engineering business attaches importance to the control of the total amount of receivables and cash flow, and focuses on the customers of high-quality state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, with soundness as the management guide. 2) overseas sector: according to Ekornes InvestorRelation, 2022Q3 achieves revenue of 1.132 billion NOK and YOY+8.81%, of which Stressless/IMG/Svane achieves revenue of 2.18 million NOK and YOY+9.06%/+18.16%/-16.75%. From a regional point of view, Norway / other Nordic regions / Central Europe / Southern Europe / United Kingdom / United States and Canada Mexico / Japan / Australia / China 1.4Gap 0.4 NOK, YOY+10.30%/-14.80%/+12.82%/+42.08%/-4.38%/+22.46%/-10.86%/-12.65%/+4.88% The recent changes in the overseas environment are mainly reflected in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and rising inflation. As a whole, the resilience of overseas business has been highlighted and steady growth has been achieved.
The Maori end is under pressure, and cash flow is higher than the same period last year. In terms of profit, the gross profit margin of 22Q1-3 company is reduced by 7.7pcts to 34.3% and by 9.0pcts to 34.3%, which is mainly due to the increase in raw materials and transportation costs. In terms of expenses, the single Q3 sales / management / R & D expense rates are-5.9/+1/+0.1pct to 17.9%, 7.7% and 2%, respectively. Overall, the expense rate is lower than the same period last year. The net cash flow generated by the operating activities of 22Q1-3 was 300 million yuan, an increase of 47.37% over the same period last year, or mainly due to the reduction in expenditure on purchasing raw materials and purchased goods in the current period.
Under the disturbance of the epidemic, the performance is under pressure, the resilience of overseas business is highlighted, and the "strong push" rating is maintained. Bulk business is expected to usher in centralized delivery in the second half of the year, if the prices of raw materials and sea freight can be rapidly improved, the company is expected to take advantage of products and marketing to seize market share. Based on this, considering the pressure on the revenue growth rate of the main brands disturbed by the epidemic, we estimate that the net profit of homing in 22-24 years is 2.11 plus 3.85 billion yuan respectively (the original value is 3.37 pound 5.33 / 694 million yuan), corresponding to the 179par 6X in 22-23-24. With reference to the absolute valuation method, the target price is given to 9 yuan, maintaining the "strong push" rating.
Risk tips: raw materials and cost side fluctuation risk; macro environment affects demand; industry competition intensifies and so on.