This report mainly focuses on the two major subdivision of racetrack coffee and tea in the current beverage industry, and makes a comparative analysis of the two categories from the dimensions of user demand and consumption characteristics, single store model, the feasibility of mutual penetration and replacement, and the current situation of the opening of major brands. On the basis of the analysis, this paper further analyzes the current situation of LUCKN COFFEE DRC's shop opening and the surrounding ecology, and tries to discuss the future development and infiltration of Ruixing.

User demand and consumption characteristics: coffee consumption is an active caffeine intake, user group stable scene attribute is prominent (addictive repurchase); tea consumption is more of an active beverage acquisition and sugar intake (optional). Consumption scene is mainly leisure. In the existing consumer groups, the repurchase rate of coffee is higher than that of tea; we think that with the increase of consumers' age, the "slope" of tea consumption frequency goes down, while the coffee consumption frequency increases gradually. the two consumption frequencies form a typical "V-shaped" with the age trend.

Single-store model: from the store level, the initial investment gap between coffee and tea with the same price is small, but the operation threshold and scene repurchase are significantly different; the cost of raw materials caused by fresh fruit accounts for a high proportion, in addition, the store rent and personnel costs of middle and high-end tea brands are generally on the high side.

The mutual penetration and replacement of the two categories is difficult to be established, but it can be tying: the differences between demand-side consumption scene and store coverage and the differences in supply side, products and supply chain determine that the existing coffee and tea stores are difficult to infiltrate and replace each other on a large scale; however, there is a dislocation in the consumption peak of tea and coffee, and there is a certain matching sales market.

Ecological analysis of Ruixing store: the "encryption" and "sinking" are synchronized with "sinking", and the mode has penetrated into counties and districts; the layout of colleges and universities to cultivate future consumer groups; and with the sinking of lucky stores, the characteristics of shopping malls and street-community stores are becoming more and more obvious, and the surrounding competitive products have gradually changed from chain coffee brands (first-and second-tier cities) to chain tea brands and single tea shops (sinking market).

Lucky future penetration discussion: 1) in terms of the size of the coverage population, the company currently covers only about 16 million users per month, while the domestic urban population aged 15-39 reaches 310 million; 2) at present, there are more than 10 brands with more than 1,000 tea stores and 64000 Top10 brand stores. However, there are only 4 brands with more than 1,000 domestic coffee stores, only 19000 Top10 brand stores, and only 30% of the tea Top10 stores. 3) at present, the number of lucky stores exceeds 7000. With the steady progress of store expansion, ten thousand stores are within reach, and the scarce national consumer chain brand can be expected in the future.

Risk hints: 1) the risk of turnaround is not as expected; 2) the risk of policy change; 3) the risk of management change; 4) the risk of intensified competition in the industry; 5) the spatial breakthrough of the sinking market of coffee needs to be further verified. 6) Food safety risk; 7) the impact of the epidemic exceeds expectations; 8) the sharp rise in raw material costs affects profit risk.