Overview of events
According to the company's report for the third quarter of 2022, the operating income / return net profit / non-return net profit in the first three quarters was 23.98 million yuan respectively, an increase of 8.34%, 20.24%, 13.63% over the same period last year, of which the revenue / net profit realized in the third quarter was 7.59 billion yuan, down 4.18% and 5.81% respectively over the same period last year. We expect to be mainly due to the transitional impact of Kangdelai Medical equipment and COVID-19-related products, with steady growth in regular business.
Excluding medical equipment and showing the same caliber, revenue growth in the third quarter is about 11%. Due to significant asset restructuring, Kandelai Medical equipment has no longer been included in the company's consolidated statement since June, and the net profit deducted from non-return in the third quarter has dropped by-30.77% compared with the same period last year. With reference to the revenue scale of 465 million yuan of Kangdelai Medical equipment last year, assuming that it corresponds to 110 million yuan in the third quarter. Excluding medical equipment and the same caliber, the company's operating income in the third quarter increased by about 11% compared with the same period last year. At the same time, considering that the delivery of foreign trade orders was delayed due to the influence of shipping in the second quarter of last year, the export base in the third quarter was relatively high. At the same time, small-size syringes produced structural changes in proportion to conventional syringes in the post-epidemic period, and the company's regular business performance as a whole was relatively stable.
The expense rate was streamlined and controlled, and the net profit margin was a record high. In the first three quarters, the company's gross profit margin was 33.92%, which was lower than that of the same period last year (5.67pp), mainly due to the adjustment of accounting standards and the influence of higher gross profit margin involved in business divestiture. The three-fee ratio decreased by 2.93pp to 15.73% compared with the same period last year, and the R & D cost rate decreased slightly to 3.98%. Under the combined effect, the net profit rate increased 0.11pp to 13.30% year on year. Maintain the highest level in history.
Investment suggestion
Taking into account the changes in the situation at home and abroad and the impact of medical equipment off-balance, we lowered our profit forecast for 2022-2023, the operating income for 2022-2023 was reduced from 3.857 billion yuan to 3.316 billion yuan, the expected revenue for 2024 was increased by 4.161 billion yuan, and the revenue from 2022 to 2024 increased by 7.1%, 8.3%, 15.8% respectively over the same period last year, and the net profit returned to the mother was reduced from 390 to 484 million yuan to 366 / 444 million yuan. The expected net profit of homing in 2024 is 536 million yuan, and the net profit of homing in 2022-2024 is 25.5% 21.4% 20.8% respectively compared with the same period last year. With the adjustment of net profit expectations, it is estimated that in 2022-2023, the EPS will be reduced from 0.88 pound 1.10 yuan per share to 0.83 pound 1.01 yuan per share, and the new 2024 EPS will be 1.21 yuan per share, corresponding to the closing price of 15.47 yuan per share on October 26, 2022, with the PE of 19great 1513X respectively. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint
The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the approval and release of new products were lower than expected, the risk of changes in the international situation and exchange rate fluctuations, the risk of loss of core technical personnel, and the risk of sales falling short of expectations.
