The company released the three-quarter report of 2022, with revenue of 519 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2022, + 72.8% year-on-year; net profit of 320 million yuan, + 120.8%; and deduction of 296 million yuan, + 118.5%.
Brief comment
The production load increased rapidly, and the performance of Q3 exceeded expectations.
The company's Q3 single-quarter revenue in 2022 was 204 million yuan, + 105.6% compared with the same period last year, and + 43.7% compared with the same period last year. Q3 returned to its mother 136 million yuan, + 165.1% compared with the same period last year, and + 44.7% from the previous year. Since 2022, the company has actively increased production to ensure the supply of orders, and continue to optimize various costs. Among them, due to the financial accounting of depreciation of the 1000-ton line from management expenses to production costs, the management expense rate in the first three quarters decreased by 14.0pct to 3.8% compared with the same period last year; as most R & D projects were in the verification stage, the R & D expense rate decreased by 4.2pct to 4.8% compared with the same period last year; and the overall expense rate decreased by 19.7pct compared with the same period last year. The company's capacity load has gradually increased, and production costs have been continuously optimized. The net interest rate of Q3 has reached 66.4%, the highest level since the beginning of 2021.
High demand for aerospace, actively expand production and undertake increment
In the military field, the iterative upgrading of military aircraft continues to contribute to the demand, and under geopolitical uncertainty, urgent demand such as drones and missiles leads to an increase in demand; in the civilian field, C919 and other volume brings broad domestic aviation demand. The company has a huge on-hand order of 2.45 billion yuan before 2023. At present, the kiloton line is rapidly expanding, and the 1500-ton third phase project is also under active construction. By the end of the third quarter, the company is under construction of 220 million yuan, an increase of 647% compared with the beginning of the year. At present, the construction of the third phase of civil engineering has been completed by 95%, and the signing rate of equipment order contract has exceeded 95%.
Equity incentive promotes long-term development
The draft equity incentive was announced on October 12, which intends to grant equity incentives to 13 people, including the company's secretaries, middle managers and business backbones, with a total of 1.09 million shares, accounting for 0.25% of the total share capital, of which Dong Mi accounts for 7.84%. The upper limit of the performance assessment is that the revenue for 22-25 years is not less than 1.68 billion yuan for 7x4xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Equity incentive effectively binds the interests of the company's employees and reflects the confidence in the rapid development in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation: the rapid expansion of the kiloton line, the third phase of accelerated construction, the company is expected to grow rapidly. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.54,7.13 and 929 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 48.1X, 30.6X and 23.5X respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk Tips:
The risk of uncertain product verification cycle: some of the products raised by the company are being verified by downstream customers, and there may be a risk of uncertain verification results if the downstream customer demand structure changes.
Release the risk of uncertainty in production capacity: since 2022, the company has had abundant orders on hand, and at present, a) the 1000-ton line may have a certain impact on normal production in the process of optimization and commissioning; b) the company plans to carry out regular maintenance of the 100-ton line within this year, which may have a certain impact on normal production. Above, although there is still some pressure on the company to guarantee supply
The risk of product price reduction: the company's products are mainly used in the field of high-end small tow, and the product price is higher than the average level of the industry. if the product price is reduced in large contracts in the future, it may cause the risk of profit decline.