Event description. On October 26, 2022, the company released a three-quarter report, with operating income of 1.377 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 22, an increase of 202.53%, a net profit of 33 million yuan, an increase of 91.40%, and a net profit of 200000 yuan, an increase of 1.19%.
Third-quarter results are under pressure. Revenue and net profit: the company's 2022Q3 revenue is 508 million yuan, 257.29% compared with the same period last year,-1.58% compared with the previous year, the net profit returned to the mother is 5 million yuan, 1629.79% from the same period last year,-42.46% from the previous year, and the net profit after deducting non-return is-6 million yuan. Gross profit margin: 2022Q3 gross margin is 11.36%, year-on-year-12.25pcts, month-on-month-2.00pcts. Net interest rate: 2022Q3 net interest rate is 1.01%, year-on-year 0.80pct, month-on-0.72pct. Expense rate: the company's expense rate during the 2022Q3 period is 14.36%, year-on-year-22.16pct, in which the sales, management, R & D and financial expense rates are 2.01%, 3.25%, 8.95% and 0.16%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of-4.23 pcts,-6.01 pcts,-10.22 pcts and-1.69 pcts.
Gross profit margin continues to decline and is expected to stabilize and pick up in the future. The main reasons for the decline in gross profit margin are: 1. The gross profit margin of assembly products is low, and the increase in the proportion of assembly products has dragged down the overall gross profit margin of the company; 2. The price of raw materials went up in the first half of the year. It is expected that the company's gross profit margin will improve in the future: 1. The company through technology cost reduction, improve capacity utilization, profitability rebounded; 2. The company increases cooperation with suppliers to lock in the price of bulk materials; 3. The company speeds up the automation investment, realizes the platform delivery, and reduces the stock.
The customer structure is balanced, the order on hand is full, and the production expansion is determined to ensure the supply. Customers: the company has more customers whose revenue contribution is about 200 million, and the customer structure is balanced. With the mass production of SAIC GM Wuling hybrid and the mass production of SAIC Chase logistics vehicles and commercial vehicles, it is expected that the revenue of Shanghai Automobile system will increase significantly; Geely also has a number of products to enter the stage of small batch shipment, with a larger increase in revenue. In terms of production capacity: at present, the company has sufficient capacity reserves. In March, the company issued the "2021 Feasibility Analysis report on the use of funds raised by issuing A-shares to specific targets (revised version)" to expand the production bases in Zhuhai and Shandong, with a production capacity of 50 and 200000 sets respectively.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve revenue of 22.64,36.47 and 5.809 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 132.0%, 61.1% and 59.3%. The net profit of returning home is 0.69,2.09 and 379 million yuan, with increases of 48.0%, 201.3% and 81.5%. The current PE of October 27, 2022 corresponds to 98, 32 and 18 times for 22-24. Benefit from the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales, a variety of power system technology path mature application, power system, motor electric control and other parts market demand is strong. In view of the optimization of the company's product structure, the orderly release of production capacity and the rich resources of downstream customers, the "recommended" rating is maintained.
Risk hints: industry competition aggravates the risk; sales of new energy vehicles fall short of expectations; raw material price fluctuations exceed expectations; exchange rate fluctuations risk.
