This report is read as follows:
The company's results in the third quarter of 2022 were slightly lower than expected. The company is actively expanding titanium materials, iron phosphate projects to accelerate, we expect the company's new business put into production, the company's performance will continue to release.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. The company's revenue in the first three quarters of 2022 was 1.51 billion yuan, down 18.21% from the same period last year, and the net profit was 871 million yuan, down 26.79% from the same period last year. The company's performance was slightly lower than expected. Considering that the price of vanadium-titanium iron concentrate continues to weaken, the company's EPS forecast for 2022-24 is 2.94 shock 3.56 shock 3.90 yuan (the original 3.64 pound 3.83 pound 3.92 yuan). Taking into account the company's titanium materials, iron phosphate project will bring performance increments, maintain the company's target price of 48.17 yuan, maintain the "overweight" rating.
The epidemic affected sales, and the profits of the iron and steel industry fell to suppress the price of vanadium-titanium-iron concentrate. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation and sales of the company's products have been affected to a certain extent. Under the background of the decline in profits in the iron and steel industry, the price of vanadium titanium iron concentrate decreased gradually in the third quarter. The epidemic situation and the decline in the price of vanadium titanium iron concentrate suppressed the company's third-quarter results. At present, the impact of the epidemic on the company's transportation has been alleviated, and we have noticed that the signal of the bottom range of the real estate has gradually become clear. It is expected that after the real estate stabilizes, the price of vanadium titanium iron concentrate will also rise, and the company's long-term profits are not pessimistic.
Continue to develop new business such as titanium (alloy) materials. The company's annual output of 60,000 tons of energy-grade titanium (alloy) material project has been completed for the record, and construction is expected to start in November 22. The project with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of iron phosphate has started construction and is expected to be put into production in 2023. Relying on its own mineral resources and green power resources, the company has competitive advantages in titanium products and iron phosphate projects. it is expected that the two businesses will become the source of incremental performance in the future.
Fund-raising projects will gradually lead to an increase in production. According to the company announcement, the company's fund-raising projects will be put into production from 2022 to 2023, and we expect the company's ore production to increase gradually. In addition, through technological transformation, the company's mining costs will gradually decline and profitability will increase steadily.
Risk hint: the production progress of the fund-raising project is not as expected, and the progress of the new project is not as expected.