Investment summary
The company released three quarterly results for 2022: revenue in the first three quarters of 2022 was 7.624 billion yuan, + 84% compared with the same period last year; net profit returned to the mother was 343 million yuan, + 366% compared with the same period last year; and net profit after deducting non-return was 338 million yuan, + 898% over the same period last year.
In a single quarter, the company's profit Q3 decreased slightly compared with the previous quarter. 2022Q3 achieved revenue of 2.986 billion yuan, + 70% year-on-year, + 14% month-on-month; net profit of 112 million yuan, + 164%,-21%; and net profit of 126 million yuan, + 335% and-6%, respectively. We believe that with the gradual release of upstream silicon capacity, the company's battery and module business costs will be improved, along with the release of Shanxi Phase I 4GW capacity, will contribute to a certain degree of performance flexibility for the company.
The progress of power supply is a little late, and the climbing of Shanxi Phase I 4GW slows down. The company plans to produce 16GW battery project annually in Shanxi, of which the first phase of 4GW will be put off the line on June 30th, but due to the power supply schedule being a little later than expected, which affects the production capacity climbing, it is expected that the first phase of 4GW will be in full production in the fourth quarter. At present, the conversion efficiency of mass-produced battery chips in Shanxi has reached 24.8% (11 main grids), and the battery silver paste consumption has been reduced to 130mg/ chips. The remaining 4GW of the first phase has started the purchase of equipment selection.
The company's backplane business progressed smoothly, expanding production to 220 million square meters at the end of 22 years, and raising funds will expand production by 250 million square meters. The company expects to expand its backplane production to 220 million square meters by the end of 22 years. The company expects to invest 882 million yuan to expand the production of 250 million flat general-purpose backplane projects. at present, it has completed the examination and approval of the project and is in the process of submitting and approving the project, such as environmental assessment.
Investment suggestion
Due to the epidemic situation, the interruption of fixed growth, the persistently high price of silicon, the intensification of competition in the household photovoltaic industry, and the poor progress of the company's Shanxi project, the shipment of batteries and components and household installation were not as expected. We expect the company's operating income to be 109.29 yuan, 174.97 yuan and 25.202 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, up 88%, 60% and 44% respectively over the same period last year, and the net profit of returning home is 4.42,6.75 and 1.262 billion yuan respectively, up 241%, 53% and 87% respectively over the same period last year.
The current stock price corresponds to 42, 27 and 15 times the PE of 22-24 years respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
Market competition aggravates the risk; the company's fund-raising falls short of expectations; backplane expansion falls short of expectations.