Main points of investment:
The company is a subsidiary of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Changlian Group with profound technical background. The company has the first set of clean production technology of cresol, systematically mastered the production technology of special polyolefin, and realized the non-precious metal catalytic incineration of petrochemical tail gas. It is optimistic about the replication of the company's catalyst research and development capability in other chemical products, and the new progress in the downstream application and development of special polyolefins.
The traditional business can get a glimpse of the technology of the company.
The company's traditional business can be divided into two product chains. One is C 3 and C 4 deep processing, the main products include polypropylene, MTBE and isooctane; the other is cresol industry chain, the main products include o-cresol, m-cresol and so on. The company's cresol technology is the world's first set of equipment, and can adjust the product structure according to the needs of the market, showing the company's catalyst research and development capabilities and industrial scale-up capacity.
Develop high-end polyolefins based on the R & D capability of catalysts
The company has ploughed polypropylene for a long time and made a breakthrough in the field of special polyolefin catalyst, becoming the "first person" with independent intellectual property rights and breaking foreign technology monopoly. Special polyolefin has a broad application prospect because of its narrow molecular weight distribution and controllable configuration. At present, the company has built 300000 tons of special polypropylene project and 150000 tons of modified polyolefin project in Huizhou.
Pay attention to the horizontal expansion of the company's catalyst research and development capability
The company has strong catalyst research and development ability, and has successively realized the industrialization of cresol product chain and special polyolefin catalyst. in addition, the non-precious metal catalyst of petrochemical tail gas has solved the pain point of the industry and has great industrial potential. Pay attention to the possibility of horizontal expansion of the company's related capabilities.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
We estimate that the company's income in 2022-24 will be 26.9 pound 52.2 / 6.69 billion yuan, the corresponding growth rate will be 38%, 94%, 28%, 0.87, 3.47 and 522 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding growth rate will be 36%, 301, 50, and 102 yuan, respectively, respectively. In view of the strong R & D capability of the company's special hydrocarbon catalysts and the continuous industrial application of the R & D achievements, and combining the absolute valuation method and the relative valuation method, we give the company a 23-year target price of 28.66 yuan, corresponding to a PE of 25.36 times, covering for the first time and giving a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: crude oil prices fell sharply as the construction capacity was promoted and market promotion was not as expected.