Event: the company released a report on the third quarter of 2022, with operating income of 3.925 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2022, + 9.98% year-on-year, and net profit of 467 million yuan,-46.56%, respectively. Net profit after deducting non-recurring profits and losses was 634 million yuan,-8.50% of the same period last year. In 2022, Q3 realized operating income of 1.254 billion yuan, year-on-year + 4.09%, month-on-month ratio-17.61%, homing net profit 126 million yuan, year-on-year-66.07%, month-on-month ratio-58.96%, net profit after deducting non-recurrent profit and loss 216 million yuan, year-on-year-8.10%, month-on-month-26.28%.
The supply and demand of 2022Q3 graphite electrode is weak, and the loss of Baichuan monitoring industry is further expanded: according to Baichuan Yingfu data, the output of graphite electrode in China from July to September was 182000 tons,-29.73% compared with the same period last year, and the month-on-month ratio was-23.37%. The average operating rate of 85 household appliance furnace steel monitored by Mysteel from July to September was 54.26%,-16.46% from the same period last year, and-11.81% from the previous month, (indicating further weakening of supply and demand in the graphite electrode industry in the quarter). According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the average price of 2022Q3 graphite electrode is 22408.60 yuan / ton, month-on-month ratio is-9.32%, industry gross profit is-1731.67 yuan / ton, month-on-month ratio is-912.79 yuan / ton.
The operating rate of electric furnace fell in October 2022, and the profit of the graphite electrode industry improved: the average operating rate of 85 household appliance furnace steel monitored by Mysteel in October was 56.47%, with a month-on-month ratio of-5.06%; according to Baichuan Yingfu data, the price of graphite electrode in October was 21953 yuan / ton, the month-on-month ratio was + 3.64%, the gross profit of the graphite electrode industry was-1228.68 yuan / ton, and the loss was narrowed by 334.12 yuan / ton.
Chengdu carbon Materials, a subsidiary, plans to apply for listing on the new third board: according to the company's announcement on September 6, it agrees with the application of its subsidiary Fangda carbon carbon Composites Co., Ltd. to be listed on the new third board, which will be conducive to the competitiveness of the company's business related to static pressing graphite, will not affect the company's independent listing status, will not affect the company's control over Chengdu carbon materials, and will not affect the company's financial situation. As of 2021, Chengdu Fangda carbon Composites Co., Ltd. has a production capacity of 10,000 tons of isostatic graphite, and the products are mainly used in semiconductor photovoltaic, nuclear industry and other industries. Chengdu Fangda carbon Composites Company made a cumulative net profit of 184 million yuan in the first half of 2022. As of October 30, Fangda carbon shareholding reached 99%.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: affected by the decline in the operating rate of electric furnace steel, the profitability of the graphite electrode industry has weakened. We have lowered the company's 2022-2024 net profit forecast by 32.16%, 31.24% and 28.13% to 807 million yuan, 1.123 billion yuan and 1.531 billion yuan, respectively. Under the background of the "double carbon" policy, the prosperity of the graphite electrode industry is expected to pick up significantly. And the company as an industry leader with carbon new materials business, to provide new momentum for future development, follow-up profits are expected to continue to pick up, so to maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk hints: overcapacity of products such as graphite electrode industry and isostatic graphite leads to a decline in profitability; Fangda Group issues negotiable bonds based on the company's shares, which may affect the company's stock price on a large scale in the future.