Event: disclosed on October 26, the three-quarter report revealed that revenue in the first three quarters of 2022 was 621 million yuan,-12.4% compared with the same period last year; net profit from return to the mother was 135 million yuan,-23.7% from the same period last year; and 128 million yuan was deducted from non-return to the mother, which was-24.24% from the same period last year. Q3 has a revenue of 126 million yuan in a single quarter, compared with-50% in the same quarter, 48% in the same quarter, 34 million yuan in net profit, 41% in the same quarter, 30 million yuan in non-return to the mother, and-50% in 46% in the same quarter.
Q3 performance pressure is mainly due to weak demand for mobile phones, reduced product sales, Q4 performance is expected to benefit from the seasonal effect of a month-on-month recovery. According to our estimate, the shipment volume of Q1/Q2/Q3 is expected to be 520x220x230t, with a price of 10,000 yuan per ton on 49-58-55 and a net profit of 10,000 yuan per ton on 8-14-15. The company has improved its profit level per ton through a series of measures such as saving energy and reducing consumption, reducing cost and efficiency, optimizing technology and so on. Affected by the epidemic, market saturation and the global economic downturn, global smartphone sales fell for three consecutive quarters this year, with 2022Q3 down 9% from a year earlier, making it the worst third quarter since 2014, according to Canalys. As epidemic prevention across the country becomes more flexible, the release time of new machines superimposed by major manufacturers on Singles Day and the end of the year is also concentrated here. Sales of mobile phones can be increased in the fourth quarter. At the same time, downstream manufacturers will prepare goods in advance for the Spring Festival at the end of the year. Q4 sales are expected to pick up.
Increase R & D investment, silver-coated copper powder and nano-silicon powder will provide considerable impetus for the follow-up development of the company. The R & D investment in the first three quarters of 2022 was 47 million yuan, which was 17 million yuan in a single quarter compared with the same period last year, compared with the same period last year.
The company has built a pilot production line of silver-coated copper powder to continuously promote product stability testing, deeply tap the potential of reducing cost and increasing efficiency in large-scale production, and provide effective technical support for follow-up large-scale mass production of silver-coated copper powder; in the field of nano-silicon powder for anode materials of lithium battery, through continuous process optimization of the production process, the per unit yield efficiency of silicon powder has been effectively improved.
Non-public increase of liquidity to reduce leverage, full subscription by real controllers shows confidence in development. The company intends to raise no more than 830 million yuan (including issue fee) from Mr. Wang Liping, the actual controller, through a non-public offering, and issue no more than 22 million shares at an issue price of 37.63 yuan per share, all of which are subscribed by Mr. Wang Liping, the real controller, in cash. Mr. Wang Liping now holds 26.6% of the shares in the company, which has increased to 27.36% after subscription. With the expansion of the company's operating scale, the demand for operating funds will increase significantly, and the fixed increase in fund-raising can further support business development. at present, the company's asset-liability ratio is only 13.7%, and financial leverage is at a low level.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve a net profit of 230 million yuan, 320 million yuan and 380 million yuan in 2022-2024, corresponding to the PE level of 57, 40 and 34X respectively under the current price. As the world's leading manufacturer of high-end metal powder for electronic specialization, the company is expected to benefit from the recovery of downstream demand and the improvement of shipments in the short term and gradually improve its profitability through a number of measures. Long-term optimistic that PVD milling process is the world's leading and broad space for expansion, new production capacity is gradually expanding, and continue to give a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk, downstream customer concentration risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, macroeconomic fluctuation risk.
