The company released 22Q3 operation data, Anta / FILA/ other brands retail sales to achieve the number of medium units / 10-20% low segment / 40-45% positive growth, basically in line with market expectations.
Anta brand: the performance is steady and the discount level is well controlled. 1) sub-category: large goods / children / online flow to achieve year-on-year single / high single / high unit growth respectively. 2) the ratio of inventory to sales: slightly more than 5 times, mainly due to the National Day and Singles Day holiday at the end of September. Q4 is expected to return to the normal level. 3) discount: the 7.4% discount for large goods is the same as the same period last year, and the discount for children is improved by 2-3 points compared with the same period last year. Under the background of repeated epidemic, the overall discount is better controlled.
FILA brand: online channels grow faster and grow better than their international counterparts. 1) sub-category: FILA big goods / children / tide card pipeline respectively achieved single / double-digit / 20% + growth compared with the same period last year, and its performance on the middle line was significantly better than that offline, with an increase of more than 65% over the same period last year, mainly due to increased cooperation and promotion between FILA and Tmall platform, and efforts in new channels such as Little Red Book and Douyin, as well as the development of live broadcasting business. 2) the ratio of treasury to sales: 7-8 times. 3) discount: the online discount is higher than that of the same period last year, with a comprehensive discount of about 7.4%, but the offline full-price store discount remains at 8.5-8.6%.
Other brands: benefit from the outdoor sports boom. 1) Kelon benefited from outdoor and camping heat, with a year-on-year growth of more than 55%, online and offline growth of 50% +, and single store efficiency exceeded 500000 from September to October. 2) Desant also maintained a good growth momentum, with an increase of more than 35% over the same period last year. 3) the performance of Amer in China is normal, and the profit margin is expected to continue to improve with the improvement of operating efficiency in the future.
In the context of repeated epidemics in the third quarter, Anta and FILA brands basically met expectations, reflecting the company's growth resilience, while other brands continued to grow, further verifying the company's strong multi-brand matrix retail operation capability. Looking forward to 22Q4, inventory management will become the focus of operation (discounts are expected to be relaxed). In addition, the company will also adopt dynamic management measures to ensure relatively stable profit margins. We continue to be optimistic about the company's multi-brand matrix operation model, which can not only effectively reach all levels of consumers, but also better seize market segmentation opportunities in the post-epidemic era (such as the Kelong brand seizing the domestic, outdoor and camping craze). Be optimistic about the company's medium-and long-term growth resilience.
According to the third-quarter operating data, taking into account the uncertainty of the impact of the epidemic, we slightly downgrade our earnings forecast for 2022-2024 and expect earnings per share for 2022-2024 to be RMB2.97,3.66,4.50 respectively (originally RMB2.99,3.83,4.68). With reference to comparable companies, we will maintain 31 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of HK $100.36 (RMB1.09) and maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: repeated epidemic situations at home and abroad, intensified competition in the industry, and so on.