22Q3's home net profit increased 26% compared with the same period last year, maintaining its "buy" rating.
Yongguan New Materials released three quarterly reports on October 27, with revenue of 3.74 billion yuan in the first three quarters, net profit of 238 million yuan (261 million yuan after deducting non-post-deduction) and yoy+22.4% (deducting non-post-deduction + yoy63.7%).
Among them, Q3 revenue is 1.43 billion yuan, yoy+46.7%/qoq+15.2%, return net profit is 80 million yuan (deducting non-post-116 million yuan), yoy+26.2%/qoq-11.1% (deducting non-post-deduction + yoy110%/qoq+15.3%).
The growth in the first three quarters was mainly due to a significant year-on-year increase in product sales, and considering the pressure on gross profit margin caused by intensified competition in the industry, we lowered the company's 22-24 return net profit forecast to 3.49 shock 4.83 / 626 million yuan (the original value is 3.72 shock 501 shock 631 million yuan), corresponding to the 22-24 EPS of 1.83 shock 2.53 shock 3.27 yuan, with reference to the comparable company valuation level (Wind unanimously expects 2022 21xPE). Considering that although the proportion of new energy business is low, but the growth of new projects is good, the company is given 19xPE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 34.77 yuan (the original value is 39.00 yuan, based on 22-year 20xPE), and maintain the "buy" rating.
Tape sales continued high growth to increase market share, cost side relief according to the company announcement, 22Q3 cloth-based / paper-based / film-based tape sales of 0.55 million square meters, yoy+71%/+31%/+64%,qoq+26%/+6%/+30%; sales average price of 3.17 pounds 1.49 pounds 0.64 yuan per square meter, yoy-15%/+9%/-22%,qoq-6%/+12%/-16% Sales 1.73Compact 3.59 / 648 million yuan, yoy+45%/+42%/+28%,qoq+19%/+19%/+18%. 22Q3 exports 15600 tons of OPP film, the average sales price of qoq+1.1%, is 0.9 thousand yuan / ton, qoq-6.5%, sales revenue is 140 million yuan, qoq-5.4%. The average purchase price of main raw materials OPP film particles / plastic particles / butyl ester / PVC powder / resin decreased by 4%, 12%, 27%, 9%, 5% and 16%, respectively. Overall, due to the increase in the proportion of film-based tape income, the product price decreased slightly, and the gross profit margin decreased slightly to 10.4%.
The cost rate is reduced compared with the previous month, and the production capacity continues to fall to the ground.
The sales / management / R & D expense rate of 22Q3 is 0.7%, 1.4%, 2.6%, respectively, month-on-month change + 0.16/-0.30/-0.13pct, financial cost-56.47 million yuan, month-on-month drop of 10.58 million yuan, mainly due to exchange gains and losses. Considering the company's product export and customer pricing process combined with exchange rate trends and the decline in overseas freight, exchange gains suppress the improvement of product gross profit margin. In addition, the company caused a non-recurrent loss of 36 million yuan in Q3 in a single quarter due to foreign exchange locking. At the end of Q3, the company's fixed assets were 1.91 billion yuan, an increase of 30% month-on-month, and projects under construction were 309 million yuan, a decrease of 49%. New production capacity such as film-based tape, paper-based tape, industrial tape, and OPP film drawing continued to fall to the ground.
Market share continues to grow, and profit margins are expected to be repaired step by step
Under the background that the overall terminal demand is still under pressure, the sales of the company's three kinds of tape products continue to grow, and the market share increases steadily. With the return of the company's global competitiveness after the decline in sea freight, we believe that with the gradual decline in raw material costs, the expansion of the company's production scale, the integration of the industrial chain and the continuous release of new products, the company's profit margin is expected to be repaired step by step.
Risk tip: the risk of a sharp decline in overseas demand, and the competition among domestic enterprises aggravates the risk.