Overview of events
Recently, mainstream mobile phone manufacturers have released satellite communication plans one after another. According to The Verge August 25, iPhone 14 and Apple Watch will be added to satellite communications; on August 26, SpaceX and T-Mobile jointly announced Coverage Above and Beyond plans. Musk said that from next year, existing 5G phones of users in some parts of the United States will be able to connect to Starlink satellites. On September 2, Huawei said Mate50 would support satellite communications. The era of satellite directly connected mobile phones is coming, and communication technology has entered a new stage.
Analysis and judgment:
Satellite communications will be accelerated to the ground, rockets and satellites will be launched in batches. Satellite Internet is a new way of communication, which refers to the repeated launch of hundreds or even thousands of small satellites to form satellite constellations in low orbit. These satellites are used as "air base stations", so as to achieve a similar effect with ground mobile communications and realize the space Internet. The domestic satellite Internet system is beginning to take shape, and in recent years, China has successively launched a series of constellation projects, such as "Xingyun", "Hongyun", "Hongyan" and so on. In April 2021, China Satellite Network Group was established to align the SpaceX "Star chain". Under the background of the policy driving up the demand of superimposed downstream applications, it is expected that China's satellite production and launch will continue to speed up.
At the same time, the accelerated landing of satellite Internet will also give rise to a large number of commercial rocket demand. Front-line commercial aerospace companies have launched "fast boat", "hyperbolic", "Ceres" and other more mature commercial rockets. In 2021, China launched more than 50 rockets a year for the first time, and commercial spaceflight entered the track of rapid development. In July this year, the construction of Hainan Commercial Space launch site, China's first commercial space launch site, began, and the regular launch is expected to be achieved in 2024. In the future, rockets and satellites will be mass-manufactured, space launch will reach a new peak, and related projects and supporting enterprises will also usher in market opportunities for upgrading and development.
Changguang Aerospace has a high market share in the field of aerospace composite materials, and Changguang Aerospace has obvious advantages in the field of aerospace carbon fiber composite materials. Products are used in rocket cabins (fairing, transfer module, interval), engine nozzles, satellite structures, space camera structures and so on. In the field of carrier rockets, the company has a relatively high share of products such as "Kuaizhou 1A" fairing and cabin sections, and there are no other competitors in "Kuaizhou 11" and other rocket fairing and cabin products at present. At present, the Kuaizhou-1A rocket can provide commercial launch services for low-orbit small satellites, and it has achieved mass production; the Kuaizhou-11 rocket can undertake the network launch tasks of small satellites, single satellites and multiple satellites in near-earth and sun-synchronous orbits. small batch trial production has been achieved. In the satellite field, the company's products are used on "Zhuhai-1", "Jilin-1", "Fengyun" series, "Xingyun" series and other types of satellites. Among them, the "Xingyun Project" is a space project planned by Aerospace Xingyun Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Aerospace Science and Technology Co., Ltd., which plans to launch a number of "Xingyun" series of satellites to build China's first low-orbit narrowband communications satellite constellation. to create a space-based Internet of things that will eventually cover the world.
Carbon fiber has the advantages of light weight, high strength, high modulus, high temperature resistance and corrosion resistance. the application of carbon fiber composites can significantly reduce the weight of rockets and spacecraft, thus increasing the payload of rockets. let a single launch undertake more tasks. According to "the Application of carbon Fiber Composites in Aerospace", the weight of carbon fiber composites is about 30% less than that of conventional metal structures in aerospace structures. At the end of 2021, the company upgraded its production capacity, expanding the production capacity of arrow body / missile body structural parts from 100 sets to 400 sets, satellite structural parts from 205 sets to 300 sets, and rocket engine nozzles from 40 sets to 100 sets, laying the foundation for the subsequent doubling of performance.
Aerospace undertakes the business of Changguang Institute and Changguang Satellite compound material, fully benefiting from the acceleration of the commercial satellite industry, according to the company's announcement, from January to November 2021, the top three customers of Changguang Aerospace are subordinate units of Optics and Machinery Institute, Aerospace Science and Industry Group and Aerospace Science and Technology Group, accounting for 44.15%, 43.37% and 10.13% of revenue respectively, accounting for more than 97% of the total. According to the company's investor relations activities, all the carbon fiber components of Optics and Machinery are provided by Aerospace, including the structural parts needed for the long-light satellite. As one of the "Changguang" brands, Aerospace has a natural advantage in undertaking the Changguang Institute project. It is expected that Opp Holdings will further consolidate and give full play to its channel advantages and continue to broaden the downstream scene. At the same time, under the background of the rapid development of the aerospace industry, the amount of carbon fiber composite materials needed for the scientific research project of the Institute of Optical Machinery has increased significantly, and the sales of Aerospace to Changguang from January to November in 2019, 2020 and 2021 are 2425.16, 2217.37 and 74.1521 million yuan respectively.
Changguang satellite under Changguang Institute is an important manufacturer in the field of domestic commercial remote sensing satellites, which successfully launched the independently developed "Jilin-1" satellite in 2015, creating a precedent for the application of commercial satellites in China. By the end of 2021, there were 31 Jilin No.1 in orbit. The speed of launch has been accelerated this year. In August, 16 "Jilin-1" satellites were launched with one arrow, realizing the number of 70 satellites in orbit and building the largest commercial remote sensing satellite constellation in China. At present, Changguang Satellite has the ability to produce more than 100 satellites a year, and will gradually form a whole industry chain cluster with satellite R & D and production as the core. At the operational level, Changguang Satellite is about to list IPO: in 2018, Changguang Satellite received 250 million yuan in angel round financing, with a post-investment valuation of 4 billion yuan; in 2019, it received a strategic investment in Lianrui technology; in 2020, it completely broke out, completing 2.464 billion yuan in Pre-IPO financing, bringing together CICC Capital, Shenzhen Venture Capital, Matrix Partners China, China Science Chuangxing, iFLYTEK and other investment institutions with a valuation of about 12 billion yuan. In January 2022, it was changed into a joint-stock limited company as a whole, and in March, it was put on record for the initial public offering. Changguang satellite is one of the few commercial aerospace companies in China that can do both satellite and payload. at present, the demand for commercial satellites is increasing and the market is constantly expanding. "Jilin-1" 100 Star Flying Apsaras is coming soon, and it is expected that the development of the company will be further speeded up, and then promote the aerospace composite materials market to further expand.
Changguang Chenxin has entered a period of rapid growth, providing important performance support for listed companies. Changguang Chenxin is a leading domestic CMOS image sensor company, leading in technology and production, and high-end products break foreign monopolies. It has more than 200 Chinese and foreign customers, including Haikang Robot, Huarui Technology, Fuzhou Xintu, Ling Yunguang, etc. The company has developed a number of standard shelf products, continue to expand downstream applications, revenue and profits have exploded rapidly in recent years. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 451 million yuan, an increase of 129.84% over the same period last year, with a five-year compound growth rate of 64.9%. Last year, due to amortization of equity incentive fees of 224 million yuan, net profit-13 million yuan. After the restoration, the company's actual net profit in 2021 was 211 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 225.0%. 22H1 has maintained a high growth trend, with revenue of 260 million yuan (+ 35.53%) and net profit of 103 million yuan (+ 88.63%). Changguang Chenxin has become an important support for the performance of listed companies.
While launching standardized products, Changguang Chen Core also provides customized services, and accurately locates high-end areas such as scientific imaging, industrial imaging, professional imaging, and medical care, and does not compete with mainstream CIS giants for the consumer market. The products have a technology premium and a high profit level. The net interest rate of 2022H1 is 39.4%, which is higher than the same period last year. Through the analysis of the annual and semi-annual reports of listed companies in the past three years, Changguang's performance has seasonal characteristics. 19H1, 20H1 and 21H1 account for 26.2%, 20.9% and 42.6% of the annual revenue respectively, and the net profit accounts for 15.9%, 25.8% and 25.8% respectively (compared with the 21-year net profit). The operation of the company was affected by the epidemic in Changchun in the first half of the year, and the performance in the second half of the year is worth looking forward to.
Changguang Institute military listing platform, "in vitro incubation" results highlight Optoelectronics 22H1 achieved revenue of 250 million yuan, year-on-year-15.15%; return to the mother net profit of 36.4909 million yuan, + 25.67%; deducting non-net profit of 32.9351 million yuan, + 22.62% year-on-year. Q2 achieved revenue of 134 million yuan in a single quarter, year-on-year-11.56%, month-on-month + 15.27%; return-to-mother net profit 19.3388 million yuan, year-on-year + 47.98%, month-on-month + 12.75%; deduction of non-net profit 17.2711 million yuan, year-on-year + 44.73%, month-on-month + 10.26%. From a business point of view, the income of the 22H1 photoelectric measurement and control instrument is 140 million yuan (- 13.97%), the gross profit margin is 27.82% (- 3.12 pcts), the income of the grating sensor is 103 million yuan (- 15.15%), the gross profit margin is 38.43% (+ 5.11 pcts), and the income of optical materials is 7.1672 million yuan (+ 2.87%). The company was greatly affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year, with a decline in revenue and profit. Due to the outstanding performance of Changguang Chenxin and Changguang Aerospace, which contributed more investment income and achieved rapid growth, the net interest rate increased by 4.48 pcts to 15.37%.
The company is the only listed platform under Changchun Institute of Optics and Machinery of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Before the company went public, Changguang promised that once the military products used for scientific research were mass produced, they would be put into Optoelectronics. As an important channel for the industrialization of optical machinery institute's technological achievements, the company will continue to undertake optical machinery spillover projects in batches. In recent years, the company has achieved rapid development through the mode of "in vitro incubation of Changguang Institute + epitaxial mergers and acquisitions of listed companies". The headquarters has gradually transformed and upgraded from the part level to the component level and component level, and the scale and volume is expected to continue to expand.
Investment suggestion
Optoelectronics has achieved rapid development in recent years through the mode of "in vitro incubation of Changguang Institute + epitaxial mergers and acquisitions of listed companies", which is expected to continue in the future. Changguang Chenxin, the participating company, is the leader of the domestic CMOS image sensor, and its performance has entered an explosive period and is expected to maintain a growth rate of 40% to 50% in the next three years. Assuming that the acquisition was completed on December 31, 2022, the asset premium arising from the holding of 11.11% of Changguang Aerospace shares was included in 2022 investment income, and Changguang Aerospace revenue profit was included in the consolidated statement from 2023 onwards. To maintain the profit forecast, it is estimated that the operating income will be 653 Universe 1.313 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, and the net profit from the home will be 1.81 million yuan, an increase of 239.4 percent, 25.5 percent, and 21.6 percent, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The EPS will be 0.75, 0.95, and 1.15 yuan, respectively, corresponding to the closing price of 21.05 yuan per share on September 2, 2022, and the PE will be times that of 28-22-18. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The risk that the acquisition progress is not as expected, the satellite Internet development is not as expected, and the missile release is not as expected.