Main points of investment:
Event: the company issued a notice on "changing the use of some repurchased shares" and "allocation of reserved shares in the employee Stock ownership Plan in 2019" on September 12, 22, saying that the total number of shares available for this employee stock ownership plan is 40 million shares. the share transfer price is RMB5.18 per share, and the total number of participants does not exceed 72. The three unlocking conditions of equity incentive are as follows: the net profit of 2023, 2024, 2025 is not less than 11.43, 18.23, 2.641 billion yuan.
The equity incentive plan reflects the company's confidence in development and establishes a long-term mechanism. The company has now completed the strategic transformation with energy logistics as its main business, in order to motivate employees, promote the implementation of energy logistics strategy and the rapid development of business, and better return investors, the company changed the use of 18.0277 million repurchased shares in 2019 to "used to implement the employee Stock ownership Plan". After the change, the reserved share of the employee stock ownership plan in 2019 is increased to 40 million shares, accounting for 3.19% of the company's total share capital; the share transfer price is the average repurchase cost of 5.18 yuan per share, and the total repurchase cost is 207 million yuan.
The gap between coal supply and demand in southwest China is expanding day by day, considering that Xinjiang is rich in coal resources and the pit mouth cost has significant advantages over Sanxi region, the policy supports Xinjiang to speed up the construction of a large-scale coal supply guarantee base, and the importance of Xinjiang coal transportation has become increasingly prominent. The initial design capacity of Hongnao railway is 39.5 million tons per year, and the long-term capacity will reach 150 million tons / year. After connecting the railway in the future, it will effectively solve the problem of commodity transportation in the mining areas of Zhundong, Santanghu and Namaohu. The distance out of Xinjiang is about 300km shorter than that of the existing Wujiang-Lanxin line, and it has become the best channel for coal resources out of Xinjiang. For the Daqin Shuohuang Railway, there is room for profitability improvement.
The 22-24 tonne freight is assumed to be 0.225 yuan, and the 22 freight volume is expected to be 20 million tons. considering the drainage of the Nao railway and the return of bauxite freight in 24 years, the freight volume in 23-24 is expected to be 43 million tons and 68 million tons. it is estimated that the net profit of the railway part after 22-year tax is 205 million yuan, and the net profit after 23-24 tax is 1.05 billion yuan and 2.496 billion yuan respectively.
Profit forecast and rating. As a listed logistics enterprise of A shareholder camp, the company locates energy + cold chain + commerce and trade multi-dimensional logistics company.
Considering the substantial increase in the transport capacity of the company's railway logistics sector in the next three years, based on the relative valuation model, the EPS of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 0.62,1.20,2.00 yuan, and the current market capitalization is 20x, 10x, 6X respectively. The energy logistics business of Daqin Railway is comparable to that of the company, the cold chain logistics business of Shun Feng Holdings is comparable to that of the company, and the business of China Merchants Shekou is comparable to the real estate business of the company, so these three companies are selected as industry standards. The industry average valuation PE from 2022 to 2024 is 18x, 14x and 12x, respectively. In addition, with reference to the period when the railway volume of Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway increased significantly from 2006 to 2009 and the main business was railway, the valuation was 25x, 57x and 16x respectively. The company's performance is flexible and maintains a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the decline in demand has led to lower-than-expected turnover; the construction progress of the Nao railway project will be lower than expected.