Event: the company released the 2022 semi-annual report, in the first half of 2022, the company achieved operating income of 20.57 billion yuan, an increase of 19.2% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 280 million yuan, an increase of 8.7% over the same period last year. Thanks to the continuous growth of the scale of copper-based materials and military carbon materials, as well as the rise in the average price of copper-based materials, the performance growth trend can be maintained under the repeated impact of the domestic epidemic.
"Copper-based materials + new military materials" drive the steady development of performance, high-end product structure shift. In the first half of 2022, the company's income from copper-based materials, high-end equipment, carbon fiber composites and steel-based materials was 19.71 billion yuan, 440 million yuan and 430 million yuan respectively, an increase of 20.0%, 16.3% and-5.3% respectively over the same period last year. Through technological upgrading and new project construction, the company has broken through the capacity bottleneck, increased the added value of products, and further enhanced the profitability of copper-based materials. As the military carbon materials plate was put into production, the production capacity was expanded, and there were sufficient orders on hand, with operating income of 436 million yuan in the first half of 2022, an increase of 16.25% over the same period last year.
The construction of fund-raising projects will be accelerated, and the volume of carbon fiber composites will be released soon. In the first half of 2022, the company's copper-based material plate "annual output of 120000 tons of high-end copper conductor material project" was completed and put into production, realizing copper-based material sales of 412700 tons, an increase of 4.84 percent over the same period last year. In September 2022, Skybird high-tech carbon fiber composites are about to be released with considerable quantity and price, which is expected to become a new flashpoint of the company's performance. In the next three years, the company's copper-based material plate and military new material plate production capacity continues to release, performance growth is considerable.
There is a broad space downstream of prefabricated parts, and the development of military and civilian business is accelerated. (1) carbon brakes and preforms for civil aircraft:
The demand for domestic replacement increases the expectation of aircraft mass production. As the only domestic enterprise to realize aircraft carbon brake disc preform, the company is expected to fully benefit from the expansion of domestic civil aircraft market and the industrialization of domestic large aircraft.
(2) prefabricated carbon brakes for military aircraft: at present, the company has matched a batch of brake prefabricated parts for all types of military aircraft, such as high-performance transport aircraft, fighter planes, bombers, early warning aircraft, carrier-based aircraft, anti-submarine aircraft and new-generation military aircraft. The upgrading of air force equipment and the replacement of old aircraft models are expected to lay the foundation for the development of the company's military business.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 700 million yuan, 970 million yuan and 1.19 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.53,0.73 yuan and 0.89 yuan respectively. Considering the two-wheel drive of copper-based materials and new military materials and the continuous release of production capacity, we predict that the reasonable market capitalization of the company in 2023 is 16.599 billion yuan, corresponding to 17 times PE, and the corresponding share price is 12.43 yuan, covering for the first time and giving a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: macroeconomic decline, raw material price fluctuations, project production is not up to expectations, market competition intensified.
