Under the disturbance of the epidemic, 22H1 revenue increased slightly, and profits caused by rising raw materials and sea freight were under short-term pressure. on August 29, the company released a mid-year report on 2022, 1H22 revenue increased by 0.94% to 2.537 billion yuan, net return profit decreased by 2.18% to 126 million yuan, and non-return net profit decreased by 24.93% to 87 million yuan, mainly due to the increase in raw materials and transportation costs and the increase in non-asset disposal income. On a quarterly basis, the single-quarter revenue of 22Q1/Q2 is 10.28% to 1.13112.24 billion yuan respectively compared with the same period last year, and the net profit from return to mother is-5.30% from 0.68 to 0.58 billion yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-return is the same as a decrease of 10.63% from 35.59% to 0.44 billion. We estimate that the EPS for 2022-2024 will be 0.59 Wind 1.12 yuan, with reference to the comparable company Wind consensus forecast of 18 times the average PE in 2022, taking into account the effectiveness of Ekornes AS changes, it is expected to open up the Chinese market, giving the company a 19-fold target PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 11.21 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Qumei brand is under short-term pressure under the disturbance of the epidemic. From the perspective of Ekornes AS operating performance, the 1H22 epidemic counterattack has disturbed the company's logistics and transportation, direct market, distribution business and B2B engineering business in varying degrees. Qumei brand revenue decreased by 32.8% to 618 million yuan in the first half of the year, but the company optimized channel operation and promoted new channel construction and new category research and development. 1H22 Beijing assembly business income increased by 10% against the trend. The amount of bulk orders of the company has increased by nearly 100%, laying a good foundation for recovery after the epidemic. In terms of Ekornes, the efficiency continued to release after the optimization of the management system. Under the weak global consumption in the first half of the year, 1H22 Stressless/IMG/Savne revenue increased by nearly 40% compared with the same period last year. In addition, the amount of orders for 1H22 non-comfort chair products increased by nearly 50%. In addition, the amount of 1H22 Stressless China orders increased by nearly 40%.
The gross profit margin of 1H22 sales is under pressure, and the reduction of leverage is expected to release profit elasticity. 1H22's gross profit margin fell by 7.1pct to 34.2% year-on-year. We judge that it is mainly due to transportation expenses including the increase in operating costs, raw materials and shipping costs. After restoring the impact of transportation expenses in the same period, gross profit margin decreased 2.0pct compared with the same period. During the 1H22 period, the expense rate decreased by 5.3pct to 29.4% compared with the same period last year, of which the sales expense rate also decreased to 16.3%, while the management + R & D expense rate increased to 9.6%, mainly due to the increase in labor costs, consulting service fees and intermediary fees. The financial expense rate has also dropped to 3.5%, which is mainly due to the increase in exchange earnings under the devaluation of the RMB. The company's capital increase after the war will be swapped for interest-bearing debt during the year, and subsequent financial expenses are expected to decrease and increase the company's profitability.
Ekornes AS grows steadily and maintains its "buy" rating
Taking into account the impact of the epidemic on the company's terminal retail, we downgrade the Qumei brand revenue forecast. It is estimated that the company's 22-24 return net profit will be 346 and 496 million respectively (before 22-24, it will be 459 and 738 million yuan), and the corresponding EPS will be 0.59, 0.84 and 1.12 yuan. With reference to the comparable company's Wind consensus forecast of 18 times the average PE in 2022, give the company a 22-year 19-time target PE. The target price is 11.21 yuan per share (the previous value is 12.42 yuan), maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: real estate sales decline, business development and transformation are not as expected, and cost control is not as expected.