Items:
The company reported that 2Q22's revenue was 303 million yuan, year-on-year-17%, month-on-month-26%, return to the mother net profit of 36 million yuan, year-on-year-43%, month-on-month-56%.
Comments:
The company's 2Q22 revenue is mainly affected by the month-on-month decline in revenue from passenger cars and military industry. The company's 2Q22 revenue of 303 million yuan, year-on-year-17%, month-on-month-26%, all decreased compared with the same period last month, and the decline was even greater. According to estimates, we estimate that the revenue of the company's 2Q22 passenger car business has dropped by about 20% month-on-month, while that of the military industry has decreased by about 50%. The former is mainly due to-27% of 2Q industry sales, while the latter is mainly due to the large amount of 1Q revenue recognition. In addition, the company's commercial vehicle business is under obvious pressure this year. It is estimated that 2Q has dropped by nearly 60% compared with the same period last year, which has become a major drag on the company's operation this year.
The decline in the scale of income has brought profit pressure. The company's 2Q22 net profit is 36 million yuan, year-on-year-43%, month-on-month-56%, deduction of non-return-to-mother 22 million yuan, year-on-year-63%, month-on-month-71%, corresponding to deduction of non-net interest rate of 7.4%, year-on-year-9.4PP, month-on-month-11.4PP. The sharp decline in profitability is mainly brought about by negative economies of scale of gross profit margin and negative economies of scale of expenses. Among them: gross profit margin 35.0%, year-on-year-5.3PP, month-on-month ratio-4.1ppjue 2Q productive amortization accounts for 12.2% of revenue, year-on-year + 5.2PP, month-on-month + 3.2PP, which are the main sources of month-on-month decline; period rate 20.7%, year-on-year + 3.1PP, month-on-month + 6.7PP, in which R & D expenses have increased, reflecting the acceleration of project development. We estimate that the profit margin index will improve accordingly after the company's revenue recovers in the second half of the year.
The second growth line is rapidly opening, promoting the company's medium-term volume to gradually move towards 5.5 billion yuan + output value:
1. The development of new differential business is faster than expected: the company plans to produce 10 million sets of differential business in the medium and long term, corresponding to a volume similar to the future synchronizer of about 2 billion yuan +, and a short-term target of 5 million sets / output value of about 1 billion yuan +. In terms of competitive advantage, in addition to R & D, the company focuses on the layout of the whole industry chain, including shell casting, machining, half-tooth forging, heat treatment and assembly assembly. In 2021, Volkswagen, Dongfeng, Geely, Great Wall and other customer projects / cooperation have been realized, and more new energy vehicle companies such as NIO Inc. and ideal have been added this year. In the previous announcement of "feedback on the application documents for the public issuance of convertible bonds", the company estimated that the revenue volume of the differential business in 2022-25 would reach 310 million yuan, 690 million yuan, 880 million yuan and 1.08 billion yuan respectively. It is expected that the differential shell production line completed by 3Q is expected to greatly enhance the competitiveness of the company and ensure a rapid breakthrough in follow-up orders. It is initially estimated that the performance flexibility of the differential business to the company this year will be 5-10%, and about 20% next year.
two。 Military business is still expanding at an accelerated pace: the company currently has four companies: Hao Yiqiang, Hengyisheng, Haoneng Air Space and Aerospace Shenkun, covering two major sectors of aviation and spaceflight. as well as aircraft sheet metal parts, aircraft processing parts, aircraft outfield modification, rocket special valves, pipelines, connectors and other diversified product business. In 2021, Hao Yiqiang's revenue was 140 million yuan / + 75%, and its net profit was 56 million yuan / + 46%. In addition to Hao Yiqiang's continued growth in 2022, the company's aerospace business is also expected to enter mass production in 2Q22 with the completion of Haoneng's aerospace production capacity. The flexibility of the military business to the company's performance growth is expected to be about 20% this year and about 10% next year. The medium-term mass is expected to reach 15-2 billion yuan.
Investment advice: according to the China News and the impact of power cuts and epidemics in Sichuan in the third quarter on the pace of new production capacity, we adjusted the company's expected return net profit from 340 million, 440 million and 560 million yuan to 310 million, 420 million and 530 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, representing a growth rate of 53%, 37% and 28%. The current PE is 16 times, 12 times and 9 times, maintaining the 2022 target PE 20-25 times (automotive and military business combined). The target price range is adjusted accordingly to 15.5-19.3 yuan, maintaining the "strong push" rating.
Risk hints: new differential projects are lower than expected, military business progress is lower than expected, raw material prices are higher, and so on.