Main points of investment
The company's performance is basically in line with expectations: the company's 2022H1 achieved revenue of 523 million yuan, year-on-year + 31.05%, home net profit of 131 million yuan, year-on-year + 38.27%, sales gross profit margin of 38.20%, net sales margin of 25.08%. The performance is basically in line with expectations. The company's 2022Q2 achieved revenue of 266 million yuan, year-on-year + 30.77%, month-on-month + 3.1%, net profit of 62 million yuan, year-on-year + 43.84%, month-on-month-10.14%; sales gross profit 36.30%, year-on-year-7.37pct, month-on-month-3.85pct, sales net profit 23.52%, year-on-year + 2.14pct, month-on-month-3.17pct.
The gross profit margin of thionyl chloride increased, and the overseas demand of aramid polymerization monomers improved: in terms of products, the revenue of inorganic chemicals business (including thionyl chloride and thioyl chloride) 2022H1 reached 214 million yuan, + 36.42% compared with the same period last year, and the gross profit margin was 44.53%, + 12.92 pct. We estimate that the company's sales of thionyl chloride in the first half of the year are about 60,000 tons. The decrease of the price of liquid chlorine, the main raw material of thionyl chloride, may be the main reason for the increase of gross profit margin of thionyl chloride.
Carboxyl chlorides (including aramid polymerization monomer, p-nitrobenzoyl chloride, m-methylbenzoyl chloride, chloroacetyl chloride, trimellitic anhydride acyl chloride) achieved revenue of 266 million yuan, year-on-year + 41.03%, gross profit 35.36%, year-on-year-9.88pct. It is estimated that the sales volume of 2022H1 aramid polymerization monomer is about 10,000 tons, contributing about 169 million yuan in revenue, basically achieving full production and full sales. We speculate that the price of aramid monomer may decrease in order to open up the market, but the increase in the price of raw materials / terephthalic acid over the same period last year is the main reason for the decline in gross profit margin.
From the company's sub-regional revenue point of view, foreign revenue reached 67 million yuan, accounting for 12.81%, compared with the 2021 annual report increased the proportion of 5.88pct. As the only export product of the company at present, it can be speculated that the overseas demand of aramid polymer monomer is recovering.
The performance increment of new products can be expected, and the layout of the integrated project will be gradually promoted: the company's new production capacity of 10,000 tons / year of aramid polymerization monomer began to climb gradually in 2022Q2, and it is now expected to basically reach production and contribute to the performance in the second half of the year. The company announced on July 23 that due to the impact of the epidemic, the production of 1000 tons / year of PEKK was postponed to October 2022, and the performance increment brought by the new product is expected. In the long run, the company's Weifang poly (aryl ether ketone) integration project is gradually promoted to further improve the layout of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.
Investment advice: due to the delay in the release of new production capacity of the epidemic company, we slightly downgrade the company's performance and predict that the company's return net profit in 2022-2024 will be 3.02,4.63 and 606 million yuan, and the current stock price will be 39 times the PE value in 2023, maintaining the "Buy-B" investment rating.
Risk tips: difluorosulfonimide lithium permeability is not as expected, polyether ketone ketone and other products expansion and sales are not expected, raw material prices rise sharply and other risks.