On August 9, the company released the 2022 interim report. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 1.91 billion yuan, with + 34.6%, net profit of 91 million yuan, with net profit of + 369.7%, and non-net profit of 80 million yuan, with + 494.8%.
Among them, Q2 achieved revenue of 1.049 billion, same as + 49.1%, return to the mother net profit of 50 million, with + 481.4%, deducted non-net profit of 47 million, with + 701.3%.
The main performance of aluminum heat transfer is higher than expected, and the military plate seasonal factors are expected to contribute to the increase in the second half of the year. The company H1 returned to its mother with a net profit of 91 million yuan, of which the subsidiaries of Yinbang Defense (Machinery Manufacturing), Tianjin Jiebang (Stomatology) and Guizhou Liyang Tianxiang (Metal 3D Printing) lost a loss of 8.91 million respectively. Total equity profit loss of 12.81 million yuan, mainly affected by order seasonal factors and delayed revenue recognition, is expected to maintain positive profit for the whole year and contribution increment in the second half of the year. After excluding, the main aluminum industry transmission business net profit of 103 million yuan, water-cooled plates and other aluminum composite plate profits exceeded expectations in the second quarter.
The proportion of new energy materials has increased to 27%, and the market is in short supply and the price is expected to rise strongly. In terms of production, the company's current production capacity is 180000 tons. After the technical transformation of Q3 is launched, the company's production capacity will rise from 180000 tons to 240000 tons, and the output in the second half of the year will be higher than that in the second half of the year. We expect the annual output to reach 170000 tons, and the full production in 2023 will reach 240000 tons.
In the first half of the year, revenue from new energy-related materials was 510 million, an increase of 237% over the same period last year, and the proportion of revenue rose to 27% from 17% in 2021. Shipments for the whole year are expected to increase from 25000 tons in 2021 to 60,000-70,000 tons.
In terms of price, the company's current orders are full, and the industry is gradually in short supply and demand. Taking into account the annual unit pricing cycle, the Q4 industry is expected to usher in a new wave of upstream catalysis of processing fees. The company's net profit per ton will continue to widen along with the upward trend of processing fees.
Kirin battery starts a new cycle of demand development in the industry, and the company has a stable leading position in the long cycle. The big market for the new application of brazing materials, "Kirin battery" clearly defines the direction of increasing the bicycle value of heat transfer materials. in addition, new markets such as energy storage and charging piles have brought a surge in consumption, and there is no clear release of new production capacity in the market before 2025, and the gap between supply and demand in 2-3 years opens a new pattern of the company's development. The company began material research and development in 2016 and directly or indirectly supplied power battery materials for new energy vehicles to well-known enterprises such as Ningde Times, BYD, Great Wall and Volkswagen around 2018, with first-mover advantage occupying the core position of the market segment. In April 2022, the company signed a memorandum of agreement with Ningde era totaling 360000 tons for five years, locking in the main share of future industry growth, and the market share of the industry leader is expected to further increase.
Profit forecast: we estimate that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 2.85,5.26,574 million yuan respectively, the corresponding PE is 47.2,25.5,23.4 times, and the PB is 7.5,5.9,4.7 times respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: raw material price fluctuation risk, new energy material demand lower than expected risk