The company ranks first in precision copper strip output in China, and its subsidiaries Tianyao High-tech and Dingli Technology are the only industrial enterprises and high-end thermal equipment leaders in the industrial production of aircraft carbon brake preforms, respectively. combined with the expansion of the company's product series to the civil field such as carbon / carbon composites in photovoltaic thermal field, its comprehensive strength and core competitiveness are expected to continue to improve, and the company's performance is expected to enter a stage of rapid growth in the next few years. Maintain a "buy" rating.
The company's 2022H1 homing net profit reached a record high of + 8.74% Q2 revenue and net profit in a single quarter.
The company's 2022H1 realized operating income of 20.571 billion yuan, year-on-year + 19.23%, return net profit of 281 million yuan, year-on-year + 8.74%, non-return net profit of 181 million yuan, year-on-year + 3.79% Operating cash flow-842 million yuan, year-on-year-36.06%, mainly due to the continuous growth of the business scale of the company's advanced copper-based materials and military carbon materials plate, the increase in turnover inventory and accounts receivable, as well as the impact of repeated local epidemics and macro environment, the rebate of sales funds temporarily slowed down. Among them, 2022Q1 realized operating income of 9.444 billion yuan, year-on-year / month-on-month ratio + 28.70% CPM 7.18%; realized return-to-home net profit of 114 million yuan, year-on-month / month-on-month ratio-5.23% RMB28.56%; realized deduction of non-homed net profit of RMB 78 million, year-on-month / month-on-month ratio-13.86% Lexus 21.68%.
2022Q2 achieved operating income of 11.127 billion yuan, year-on-year / month-on-month + 12.22% bonus 17.82%, homing net profit of 167 million yuan, year-on-year / month + 20.93% quarter-on-month net profit of 46.18%, non-return net profit of 103 million yuan, year-on-year / month-on-month + 22.87% lead 31.94% Q2 performance exceeded expectations, hitting a record high in a single quarter.
The main factors for profit growth are as follows: 1) the volume and price of advanced copper-based materials is higher than that of 2021H1. Thanks to the commissioning of the "annual production of 120000 tons of high-end copper conductor materials project", 2022H1 realized revenue of 19.707 billion yuan, + 19.97% year-on-year, and copper-based materials sales of 412700 tons, + 4.84% year-on-year. 2) the high-performance carbon fiber composite plate benefited from the continuous release of production capacity of the fund-raising project, and the subsidiary Tianyao High-tech 2022H1 achieved revenue of 299 million yuan, year-on-year + 31.31%. 3) the high-end thermal equipment plate had sufficient orders on hand, and the subsidiary Top Technology 2022H1 achieved revenue of 165 million yuan, + 11.68% compared with the same period last year. Military carbon materials plate achieved cumulative revenue of 436 million yuan, + 16.25% year-on-year. 3) the three fees and expenses remain stable, and the R & D investment continues to help. The sales expenses / management expenses / financial expenses / R & D expenses of 2022H1 Company is RMB 0.53 million, with year-on-year changes of-2.42%, 4.30%, 7.63% and 7.02%, respectively.
Subsidiaries actively "grasp" external expansion and "increase" benefits. On the basis of strengthening the original competitive advantage, the subsidiary actively carries out extension trading business to increase the enterprise's economic benefits. 2022H1 realizes: 1) the subsidiary Tianjiao High-tech participates in the strategic placement of Zhong Fu Shenying's initial public offering; 2) the wholly-owned subsidiary Chujiang High Precision Copper Belt invests in the establishment of "Anhui Chujiang Renewable Resources Recycling Co., Ltd." and "Anhui Chujiang Recycling Metal reuse Co., Ltd." 3) Chujiang Alloy, a wholly-owned subsidiary, invested in the establishment of Anhui Chusheng Recycling Metal reuse Co., Ltd.; 4) the independent listing of holding subsidiary Dingli Technology in China is in an orderly process and received the second round of financing in April 2022.
Expand the product market horizontally and vertically to meet the performance growth points: 1) Advanced copper-based material plate: at present, the company's copper-based material production capacity is 650,000 tons / year, including 300,000 tons / year for copper strip and copper conductor, and 50,000 tons / year for copper alloy wire. With the promotion of fund-raising and construction projects, the company plans to achieve sales of 875000 tons of advanced copper-based materials in 2022. In addition, the "150000 ton high-end thin wire production project" superimposed bus project, the copper conductor production capacity is expected to exceed 500000 tons by the end of the 14th five-year Plan; 2) High-performance carbon fiber composite plate (Skybird high-tech): the first phase of 480t annular high-performance carbon fiber preform was put into production in the first half of 2021 and is now in full production. The second phase of 650t carbon fiber thermal field preform was put into production at the beginning of this year, and the company expects to achieve full production in 2023. 3) High performance carbon fiber composite plate (Wuhu Sky Bird): the first phase of 400 ton photovoltaic thermal field carbon / carbon composite project company is expected to be completed and put into production in September this year, followed by the layout of civil carbon / carbon, carbon / ceramic brake discs and other products.
Risk factors: raw material price fluctuation; market competition intensifies; downstream demand is lower than expected; the company's technological breakthrough is not as expected; the company's production capacity construction progress is not as expected.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company's precision copper strip output ranks first in China, and its subsidiaries lead the field of carbon brake preform and high-end thermal equipment, and expand into the field of carbon / carbon composites in photovoltaic thermal field. with the gradual landing of multi-field layout and production capacity, the company's product sequence is further improved, and its comprehensive strength and core competitiveness are expected to continue to improve. It is expected that the company's performance will enter a stage of rapid growth in the next few years. We maintain the homing net profit forecast of the company from 2022 to 2024 as 715, 944 and 0.51 billion yuan, corresponding to the 2022-2024 EPS forecast of 0.54, 0.71 and 0.86 respectively. With reference to the company's historical valuation (as of August 24, 2022, the average PE (TTM) of the company in the past 3 years is 30 times, and the average minus twice the standard deviation is 21 times), we give the company 20 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 10.7 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.
