Main points of investment:
The gap between supply and demand of coal in southwest China is expanding day by day, so it is urgent for Xinjiang coal to be transported abroad. There is no large-scale new production capacity in the "Sanxi" region, the production capacity in the central and eastern regions is accelerated to withdraw, and the guaranteed supply pressure squeezes the coal input in the southwest region, resulting in an accelerated expansion of the gap in the southwest region, and there is an urgent need for the outward transportation of Xinjiang coal to ensure energy supply. The coal gap in the five provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan, Chongqing and Ganning has expanded year by year, accounting for 48% of the total consumption in 2020, up from 24% in 2014. In 2020, the coal shortfall in the five provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan, Chongqing, Gansu and Ningxia totaled 189 million tons, an increase of 99.98 percent from 94.49 million tons in 2014. Considering that Xinjiang is rich in coal resources and the pit mouth cost has significant advantages over Sanxi region, the importance of Xinjiang coal transportation has become increasingly prominent. The policy vigorously promotes the construction of energy supply guarantee bases in Xinjiang: during the 14th five-year Plan period, Xinjiang is expected to increase its coal production capacity by more than 164 million tons, actively create a railway pattern of "one main body and two wings", and promote the construction of special lines for resources in an orderly manner. to protect Xinjiang's energy output.
For the Daqin Shuohuang Railway, the "Naohong" railway is regarded as the golden section of Xinjiang energy output artery, and the performance elasticity is remarkable. The Hongnao railway has a total length of 435.6 km, with an initial designed annual transport capacity of 39.5 million tons and a long-term capacity of 150 million tons per year. In the future, after connecting the Nao railway, it will effectively solve the problem of commodity transportation in the mining areas of Zhundong, Santanghu and Namaohu. The distance out of Xinjiang is about 300km shorter than that of the existing Wujiang-Lanxin line, and it has become the best channel for coal resources out of Xinjiang. For the Daqin Shuohuang Railway, there is room for profitability improvement. Assuming that the freight of 22-24 tons is 0.225 yuan, and the freight volume in 22-24 years is 20 million tons, 45 million tons and 60 million tons, the net profit after tax in 22 years is 205 million yuan, and the performance in 23-24 years is 823 million yuan and 1.822 billion yuan respectively, which greatly thickens the performance of the company. In addition, the company built Guangyuan comprehensive logistics base project, the government coordinated to strengthen transport capacity protection, obtained an additional 30 million tons of coal production capacity target replacement, production capacity to a new level.
Gather the advantages of the rapid development of the industry and make efforts to the logistics industry. Under the background of the policy to promote the rapid development of cold chain logistics, the company successfully acquired the Gexin project and actively laid out the air-facing economic demonstration zone. The demise of the real estate business is coming to an end, and short-term performance is still guaranteed.
The Meju Logistics Park has successfully completed its transformation and upgrading, and the follow-up is expected to form a synergy with other projects such as the airport economic zone to contribute to the performance increment of the company.
Profit forecast and rating. As a listed logistics enterprise of A shareholder camp, the company locates energy + cold chain + commerce and trade multi-dimensional logistics company.
Considering the substantial increase in transport capacity of the company's railway logistics sector in the next three years, based on the relative valuation model, the company's EPS will be raised from 0.52,0.59,0.62 yuan to 0.62,0.84,1.53 yuan in 2022-2024, and the current market capitalization corresponds to 13x, 9x and 5X respectively. The energy logistics business of Daqin Railway is comparable to that of the company, the cold chain logistics business of Shun Feng Holdings is comparable to that of the company, and the business of China Merchants Shekou is comparable to the real estate business of the company, so these three companies are selected as industry standards. The industry average valuation PE from 2022 to 2024 is 18x, 14x and 12x, respectively. In addition, with reference to the period when the railway volume of Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway increased significantly from 2006 to 2009 and the main business was railway, the valuations were 25x, 57x and 16x respectively. The company's performance is flexible and maintains a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the decline in demand has led to lower-than-expected turnover; the construction progress of the Nao railway project will be lower than expected.