Electrolyte additives global leader, new energy demand guarantee capacity digestion company is the electrolyte additive leader, the main business is electrolyte additives and special silicone, the main products are vinylidene carbonate (VC), fluoroethylene carbonate (FEC) and lithium dioxalate borate (BOB). Downstream electric vehicles, energy storage and other lithium battery market drive industry demand, the industry short-term boom, long-term growth space is broad. The electrolyte additive industry has high barriers, the company has technical and cost advantages, and will continue to benefit from the development of the lithium industry. At the same time, the company's new product difluorosulfonimide lithium (LIFSI) is expected to be put into production in 22 years, bringing incremental performance to the company.
Market: additives are an important component of electrolyte, downstream new energy demand for strong development of new energy, reducing carbon emissions is a common development trend in China and the world. As a green secondary energy, lithium battery is an important technical route to replace traditional fossil energy in the future. Especially in recent years, with the rapid improvement of the permeability of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries are growing rapidly. Looking to the future, we believe that the rapid development of many downstream application scenarios, such as new energy vehicles, 3C electronics and energy storage batteries, especially energy storage batteries are expected to become the next growth pole, driving the continuous growth of upstream lithium battery shipments. as a result, the demand for electrolyte increases rapidly. As an important part of electrolyte, electrolyte additive can effectively optimize the conductivity, flame retardancy, overcharge protection and rate characteristics of electrolyte, and will benefit from the rapid development of lithium industry for a long time.
The company: electrolyte additive leader, special organosilicon business contribution increment company entered the lithium battery electrolyte additive market in 2003, always adhering to technological innovation and product upgrading, formed a set of research and development, production, sales and management and other aspects of comprehensive advantages and become the electrolyte additive leader. In the past three years, benefiting from the strong demand downstream, the company's VC and FEC capacity utilization has been increasing and will reach about 100% in 2021. Therefore, we believe that the company's investment in VC and FEC projects will ensure the steady growth of the company's shipments, thus driving the performance up. In addition, the company is also actively expanding the LIFSI and special silicone business, in which the LIFSI Phase I annual production capacity of 500T project is expected to be put into production in 22 years, with a long-term planning of 3000 tons of annual production capacity. It is expected that with technological progress and capacity expansion, it will continue to contribute to the company's performance increment.
The overall forward fair value range of 6-12 months after listing may be 84.42-9.849 billion yuan. We expect the company's net return profit in 2022 to 2024 to be 469, 516 and 584 million yuan, respectively. Based on the PE and FCFF methods, we expect the company's forward fair valuation of 6-12 months after listing to be 84.42-9.849 billion yuan, corresponding to a 21-year deduction of non-post-deduction / non-pre-homing net profit PE of 20.3-23.6x/20.1-23.4x.
According to the 28 million shares issued (excluding the over-allotment), that is, the total share capital of 110 million shares, the reasonable valuation price is 76.75-89.54 yuan, corresponding to the estimated PE of 18.0-21.0 times in 2022.
Risk tips: iterative risk of technology upgrading; risk of accelerated decline in product prices due to intensified market competition; risk of management and internal control; financial and legal risk; risk of failure to issue and raise funds; risk of the impact of earnings forecasts that fall short of expectations on valuation and forecast performance.
