Report guide
Guanghui Logistics, the only modern logistics platform under Guanghui Group, intends to acquire Hongnao Railway, an important railway asset of Xinjiang Coal Transportation. After the completion of the acquisition, it is expected to coordinate the development of railway assets with the company under construction, bringing certainty to the company's value growth and giving it a "buy" rating for the first time.
Main points of investment
Guanghui Logistics is the only modern logistics platform under the Group. Guanghui Logistics is the only modern logistics platform of Guanghui Group. Under the coordinated development goal of Guanghui Group, Guanghui Energy is expected to provide the company with stable energy freight demand. While eliminating the real estate business and promoting the transformation from traditional trade logistics to modern logistics, the company has steadily entered the energy logistics industry.
Plan to acquire important railway assets and march into energy logistics
The company acquired Hongnao Railway at a price of 4.176 billion yuan, which has the characteristics of income generation and profitability. The acquisition injects high-quality assets into the company, and is expected to develop in coordination with the company's existing business assets in the future. to provide strong support for the company to focus on the development of the main logistics industry.
Hongnao line is an important asset of coal out of Xinjiang, quantity and price increase good performance has growth certainty after this acquisition performance growth, traffic volume, as an important part of the "one main and two wings" strategic north passage of the national railway in and out of Xinjiang, superimposed electrification and double-track transformation, the long-term transport capacity of Hongnao railway is expected to reach 150 million tons. Xinjiang's location advantages and national policies will promote the high increase of freight volume on the whole line. From the price point of view, under the background of the marketization of the railway pricing mechanism guided by the state, there is still much room for improvement between the current freight price of Hongnao Railway and the price guided by the Development and Reform Commission. In addition, we estimate that the company's static freight rate profit elasticity is relatively high. TAL Education Group's performance growth has a strong certainty.
Profit forecast and valuation
Taking into account the continued volume of the company's railway freight business and the demise and carry-over of the real estate business, we estimate that the company's 2022-2024 net profit is 761 million yuan, 852 million yuan and 910 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding current price PE is 13.2,11.8 and 11.0 times, respectively. Under the segment valuation, it is estimated that the reasonable value of the company in 2022 is about 11.444 billion yuan, and there is still about 49% space corresponding to the current price. The company plans to acquire Hongnao Railway, a subsidiary of the Group, to further focus on the main industry of energy logistics, with the release of freight volume and the room for improvement in freight rates under the catalysis of policies, covering it for the first time and giving it a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the operation of Hongnao line is not as expected; the progress of railway construction is not as expected; the policy fluctuation of the real estate industry.