The listing date of Meijin convertible bonds is May 30, and the capital raised by the convertible bonds in this issue is 3.59 billion yuan. After deducting the issuance fee, it will be used for the production project of new chemical materials, hydrogen fuel cell power system and hydrogen fuel commercial vehicle parts production project of Shanxi Meijin Huasheng Chemical New Materials Co., Ltd. (phase one) as well as liquidity supplement.
Domestic independent leading coking enterprises. The company started with the coking business and gradually expanded its hydrogen energy business in recent years. It has four coal mines and currently has a coal production capacity of 6.3 million tons per year, in addition to some coking coal production capacity to be injected; coking capacity of 7.15 million tons per year, which is an independent coking leader in China. At present, coking business is the company's main source of income-performance contribution. Since 2017, the company has actively laid out the whole hydrogen energy industry chain, and has not yet formed a large-scale contribution, accounting for less than 5% of revenue. The company's gross profit margin fluctuates with the industry cycle, the coke market has warmed up in 21 years, and the gross profit margin has increased significantly compared with the same period last year (8.93pct). Compared with the listed companies in the same industry, the company has the advantage of raw material cost, high-end product positioning and high process quality, so the gross profit margin is in the leading position. On the whole, during the period of the company, the expense rate continued to decline, the cash flow level continued to improve, and the profit level also improved significantly.
Coking capacity continues to expand, hydrogen energy distribution is expected to achieve profitability. Under the dual-carbon policy, coking continues to eliminate production capacity, the supply side shrinks, and the industry concentration increases; the steady growth of the demand side may drive the demand for steel, which in turn drives the demand for coke. In recent years, the supply and demand pattern of coke continues to improve, and the overall price of coke shows an upward trend, leading to the improvement of the company's profit level. At present, the company is still promoting capacity construction, and existing projects under construction include Inner Mongolia Meijin Energy 6 million ton project (affected by local environmental policies in the short term) and Tanggang Meijin II 1.3 million ton project. After the completion of all the projects, the company's annual coking capacity can reach 14.45 million tons, maintaining a leading position; at the same time, Huasheng Chemical's coking by-products will also be put into production this year, bringing profit increment for the company. In the field of hydrogen energy, compared with the development plan, there are still a large number of gaps in the ownership of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China. The sales of subsidiary Flying car-Qingdao Meijin hydrogen fuel vehicle is expected to grow rapidly and make a profit. According to the unanimous forecast of Wind, the net return profit of 2022 Company2023 will be 2.705 billion / 3.128 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 18.05X/15.6X.
The valuation is at a nearly five-year low, with high stock price elasticity and high institutional attention. From the valuation point of view, the company's latest closing price corresponds to PE (TTM) of 19X, the valuation is in a low position in the past five years, comparable company Shanxi Coking / Baofeng Energy PE (TTM) is respectively 11.66X/15.72X, which is at a reasonable level compared with comparable companies. The company's current A-share market capitalization of 48.8 billion yuan, high stock price elasticity, 22 quarterly reported 33 positions, high institutional attention.
Parity, debt protection in general. The interest rate clause of Meijin convertible bond is average, and the additional terms are regular.
According to the latest closing price of the corresponding company, the parity of convertible bonds is 88.49 yuan, which is generally protected; under the assumption of this article, the value of pure bonds is 85.90 yuan, YTM is 3.65%, and the protection of debt bottom is general.
The listing price is expected to be between 110 and 115 yuan. Meijin convertible bond rating AA-, the latest parity 88.49. the convertible bond market can refer to the underlying Jinneng (the latest price is 125.79, the premium rate is 22.85%). It is estimated that the conversion premium rate of Meijin convertible bond on the first day of listing is between 24% and 29%, and the listing price is between 110,0,115 yuan.
Risk hint: downstream demand does not meet expectations; pledge proportion is high
