Determined to become a "Belt and Road Initiative" leading supply chain platform operator. At present, the company's income mainly comes from commercial housing sales, and has accelerated its transformation to a supply chain logistics platform operator in recent years. In June 2020, the company invested 454 million yuan to acquire 18.92% of the equity of Jiannao Railway, becoming its third largest shareholder and formally entering the field of energy logistics. In 2022, it acquired a 92.77% stake in Hongnao three Railway Company, becoming its largest shareholder. After the completion of the acquisition of Hongnao Railway, the company will have a total of 866 km of strategic railway assets of 431 km and 435 km of Hongnao Railway, which will help the company transform its energy logistics.
Get through the road from Jiangnao to Hongnao and create a "golden channel". First of all, from the point of view of transport demand, Xinjiang will have an additional coal production capacity of 160 million tons per year during the 14th five-year Plan period, with a total capacity of 4.6 billion tons per year, with an output of more than 400 million tons per year. Secondly, from the point of view of the necessity of transportation, there is a large coal gap in the surrounding areas of Xinjiang, with a coal gap of about 6.621 million tons in Gansu and nearly 100 million tons in Sichuan and Chongqing in 2021. The advantages of coal cost and environmental protection of transporting coal from Xinjiang are prominent. Thirdly, from the point of view of resource endowment, the Hongnao line mainly passes through Hami region, where the coal resource endowment is of high quality and is building a national coal base. The coal output in this area is 84.279 million tons in 2021, 90 million tons in 2025 and 150 million tons in 2030. Finally, from the point of view of the transport capacity, the initial transport capacity of the Hongnao railway is 39.5 million tons, and after the transformation, it is expected to reach 6000-80 million tons by the end of 2023, with a long-term capacity of 150 million tons; for the Jiannao railway, the initial designed transport capacity is 22.5 million tons, and the long-term transport capacity is 47.6 million tons. Jiannao railway is the western extension of Hongnao railway. after the two transport capacity is on the ground, the synergy effect is significant, and it will jointly create a "golden channel" for energy transportation.
Logistics plate Xu Li, performance release can be expected. First of all, the company successfully acquired the Gexin project, which has become a key project of the 14th five-year Plan of the autonomous region and is located in the core area of the airport economic zone. It will fully enjoy the location advantages and expand the short -, medium-and long-term development space of the company's logistics. Second, in 2021, the company's cold chain logistics warehousing business rental rate rose from 23% to up to 91%, high business growth is expected, cold chain logistics transport sector may release profit increment.
Investment suggestion
In the next city of energy logistics, transport capacity is about to usher in a development period, and the company will show a new profit pattern. It is expected that the company's parent net profit in 2022, 2023, and 2024 will be 8.30, 901, 1007 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.66, 0.72 and 0.96 respectively. Taking the closing price of 10.73 yuan on July 29, 2022 as the benchmark, the corresponding PE is 16.24, 14.96 and 11.17 times, respectively. Combined with the prosperity of the industry, we are optimistic about the development of the company. Cover for the first time, giving a "highly recommended" rating.
Risk hint
The real estate regulation and control policy has been tightened, the profitability of railway logistics has been lower than expected, and the competition in the industry has intensified.