Event: on July 9, 2022, the company disclosed a half-year performance forecast for 2022. It is expected that H1 will achieve operating income of 10-1.4 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 342% Mui 518%, and a net profit of 4-530 million yuan, which is + 841% Muel 1147% over the same period last year. Q2 is expected to achieve operating income of 6.5-1.05 billion yuan in a single quarter, compared with the same period last year, with an estimated operating income of 619%, 1063%, 83%, and net profit of RMB 270-400 million, compared with the same period of last year, which is + 1118%, 1709%, and 103%, respectively.
The high performance in the first half of the year was mainly due to the rise in the volume and price of all products. 1) quantity: 6841 tons of lithium concentrate, 198 tons of industrial carbon (previous inventory) and 64000 tons of chromite are expected to be sold in the first half of the year. 2) Price: the overall price of lithium salt remained high in the first half of the year. The average price of Q2 battery-grade lithium carbonate was 483,000 yuan / ton, with a month-on-month ratio of + 14%. The average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide was 494,000 yuan / ton, with a month-on-month ratio of + 34%. The company's lithium concentrate products basically rise at the same time as the price of lithium salt. On the demand side, there was a brief decline in the production and consumption of new energy vehicles affected by the epidemic in April, and the resumption of work in Shanghai has been promoted in an orderly manner since May, and there are obvious signs of recovery in new energy vehicle consumption in June; on the supply side, the Australian lithium mine is less than expected due to labor shortages. In addition, most global green space projects are delayed to varying degrees due to environmental, community, infrastructure and other factors, and the overall progress is lower than market expectations.
By 2025, the total planned production capacity of lithium salt is nearly 40,000 tons of LCE, with a total planned investment of 6 billion yuan.
2021-2023 plan 2 billion to build 12000 tons of lithium carbonate production line in Zabuye II (9600 tons of electric carbon + 2400 tons of industrial carbon), which is expected to be put into production in September 2023; 2023-2025 plans to invest 2 billion to build 10,000 tons of lithium hydroxide project + the second 10,000 tons of electric carbon project, plus 5400 tons of existing lithium concentrate (equivalent to LCE), the total production capacity of lithium salt is nearly 40,000 tons, supporting energy supply project United Nations household appliances launched simultaneously. The orderly expansion of production capacity provides support for the continued high growth of the company's future performance.
The policy boosted the EV boom and superimposed high costs to support the high toughness of lithium prices in the second half of the year. According to the statistics of the Federation of passengers, the wholesale sales of the national new energy passenger car market in June are expected to be 546000, a year-on-year increase of 130%. The super sales are better than the expected trend of the policy in the industry, and there are obvious signs of recovery. The passenger car market will continue to improve in the second half of the year, driven by the recovery of the macro-economy and preferential automobile policies. we estimate that 5.4 million new energy vehicles will be sold in 2022, with a penetration rate of 27%. The production schedule of the world's mainstream battery factories continues to heat up. 61.4Gwh is expected in July, with a production schedule of 700Gwhr + for the whole year of 2022 compared with + 12.4% Perry. The auction price of PLS lithium mine was US $6530 / ton (SC5.5,FOB) on June 23, boosting the cost support price per ton of LCE to 470800 yuan (including tax).
Investment suggestion: the company plans to expand production steadily, and under the background of high lithium price, future profits are expected to further increase. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 9, 19 and 2.5 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE is 35, 21 and 16 respectively. Maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the risk of price fluctuation of lithium salt products; the risk of epidemic situation affecting terminal consumer demand; and the risk that the second phase of the project is not as expected when it is landed and put into production.