Report guide
The guidance on promoting the high-quality development of the petrochemical industry during the 14th five-year Plan is issued to drive the upgrading of the development engine of intelligent logistics in the petrochemical industry, which will significantly benefit the company's petrochemical business.
Main points of investment
In April 2022, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology and other six departments jointly issued the "guidance on promoting the High-quality Development of the Petrochemical Industry during the 14th five-year Plan", proposing that by 2025, the production concentration of bulk chemical products will be further improved, and the capacity utilization rate will reach more than 80%. With the digital transformation, the self-control rate of major production devices of enterprises in key areas such as petrochemical and coal chemical industry has reached more than 95%, and about 30 intelligent manufacturing demonstration plants and 50 intelligent chemical industry demonstration parks have been built.
The petrochemical industry occupies an important position in the national economy, and the construction of intelligent logistics will enter a period of rise. The petrochemical industry is China's basic industry and plays an important role in the national economy. According to the data of Sinopec, in 2021, enterprises above the scale of China's petrochemical industry achieved a cumulative revenue of 14.45 trillion yuan and a total profit of 1.16 trillion yuan, both reaching record highs, up 30% and 126.8% respectively over the same period last year. Intelligent logistics has always been a major deficiency affecting the high-quality development of petrochemical enterprises. during the 13th five-year Plan period, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp took the lead in opening the construction of intelligent logistics system, exploring FFS intelligent packaging line, intelligent three-dimensional warehouse, automatic loading system, intelligent pick-up system and so on. In the future, with the expansion of the production scale and the improvement of the technical level of petrochemical enterprises, the importance and value of logistics will be paid more and more attention, and the smart logistics market of the petrochemical industry will enter a rising period.
The company has the first-mover advantage and large-scale project accumulation in the petrochemical industry, and the accelerated release of orders after EIA has begun to lay out the petrochemical industry as early as 2016, and has participated in the construction of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp's intelligent logistics projects. In 2020, the company's new orders in the petrochemical industry reached 400 million yuan, an increase of 346% over the same period last year. In 2021, under the influence of national policy, petrochemical industry projects need to re-go through the environmental assessment procedures, and the company has launched the project progress followed by the company, resulting in only 47.76 million yuan of new orders in the petrochemical industry in that year, and 445 million yuan of unconfirmed revenue orders at the end of the year. In 2022, with the gradual completion of EIA procedures, the company's orders in the petrochemical industry rapidly increased, and won the bid China Petroleum & Chemical Corp 130 million yuan logistics automation order in March, the follow-up petrochemical industry logistics automation orders may be accelerated release.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company has significant first-mover advantages and large-scale project accumulation in the petrochemical industry logistics market. The release of the new policy of the petrochemical industry will drive the release of the demand of the industry's intelligent logistics market, and the company's petrochemical business growth is expected. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.6,2.5 and 400 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 24, 15 and 10 times PE respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The macro-economy affects the downstream demand, the policy landing is not as expected, the industry competition intensifies and so on.
