Report guide
The company focuses on big data business, providing data analysis, governance, convergence, the rapid development of performance can be expected. Speed up the construction of a national unified market, the value of IT+ supply chain is further highlighted.
Main points of investment
Focus on big data business, the results gradually show, the rapid development of performance can be expected.
China Holdings has been engaged in the digital transformation of government, finance and supply chain for many years, and its main business includes big data products and solutions, software development, operation and maintenance, and integration. At present, the traditional integrated business still occupies a dominant position in revenue, but the company's strategy focuses on big data's high-margin product-solution business, which is the main driving force for growth, and the performance growth rate continues to grow at a high rate.
Focus on data analysis, governance, convergence, promote the overall profitability of the company.
In big data's product and solution business, the company efficiently aggregates and merges data from different systems, different time and space dimensions, facing the business scenarios of city, supply chain, financial technology, agriculture, and so on. Big data analysis, governance, convergence and other solutions are formed by the three product families of standardized product intelligence center, intelligence center and intelligence twins. 2020-2021 the compound growth rate of big data's products is 81%, and the gross profit margin is 83%. The rapid development of big data's product business with high gross margin is expected to improve the overall profitability of the company.
Speed up the construction of a national unified market, the value of IT+ supply chain is further highlighted.
Intelligent supply chain business uses big data technology to empower to provide integrated supply chain services such as production and sales forecasting to improve the efficiency of the supply chain. We believe that under the background of speeding up the construction of a national unified market, the value of the company's intelligent supply chain is expected to be further highlighted to provide support for sustainable growth.
Profit forecast and valuation
We forecast that the company will achieve revenue of HK $254.17, HK $306.66 and HK $36.489 billion from 2022 to 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.74%, 20.66% and 18.99% respectively, and net profit of HK $10.65,15.23 and 2.106 billion respectively, up 49.62%, 43.01% and 38.33%, respectively. EPS (latest dilution) is HK $0.64, 0.91 and 1.26 respectively, and the corresponding pre-PE is 6, 4 and 3 times respectively. Give the company 13 times PE for 22 years, corresponding to a market capitalization of HK $13.841 billion, with a target price of HK $8.27 per share, with a space of 134.28%.
Risk hint
Market competition intensifies; labor costs rise rapidly; big data's product and program business is not as expected.