The company released the 2021 annual report: the annual income of the company in 2021 is 1.186 billion yuan, the net profit of YoY-27.44%; is 40 million yuan, and the non-net profit of YoY-81.43%; is 33 million yuan, YoY-83.42%.
Excluding the impact of income from epidemic prevention materials, business income decreased by 19.01% compared with the same period last year. 2021H2 realized operating income of 556 million yuan, YoY-33.47%; return net profit-28 million yuan, YoY-133.40%; deducted non-net profit-31 million yuan, YoY-141.58%.
The company released the quarterly report of 2022: 2022Q1 achieved an income of 322 million yuan, YoY-3.34%; returned to its mother net profit of 2 million yuan, YoY-95.14%; deducted non-net profit of 1 million yuan, YoY-96.31%.
Seize the aging market and wait for performance to rebound:
From a product point of view: in 2021, the company's income from adult incontinence products reached 464 million yuan, an increase of 8.07% over the same period last year. 2021H2 realized income of 240 million yuan, an increase of 7.03% over the same period last year. We judge that the growth of the company's adult incontinence products performance is mainly due to: 1) the market brought about by the silver economy; 2) the increase in per capita disposable income of residents and the enhancement of personal care awareness; 3) the company's brand influence is prominent. The annual income of pet hygiene products in 2021 was 88 million yuan, an increase of 13.87% over the same period last year. The income of 2021H2 was 48 million yuan, an increase of 19.33% over the same period last year. We judge that this is mainly due to the growth of the market scale of the pet industry and the upgrading of pet consumption. The annual income of baby care products in 2021 was 612 million yuan, a decrease of 34.81% compared with the same period last year. The income of 2021H2 was 259 million yuan, a decrease of 52.29% over the same period last year. Due to the decrease in the birth rate of newborns, the business of baby care products was transferred to the stock market. The annual income of masks and other businesses was 23 million yuan in 2021, a decrease of 88.09% and 65.99% compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 88.09% and 65.99%.
Profit forecast and rating: we expect the company's net profit for 22-24 to be 1.1,1.5 and 190 million yuan respectively, an increase of 174.3%, 34.0% and 32.1% over the same period last year. The current closing price corresponds to 31 and 23 times PE for 22-23 years. Combining the two valuation methods of relative valuation and absolute valuation in 2022, taking the lower part of the results, it is estimated that the corresponding reasonable value range of the company is 14.84-15.24 yuan. Give a rating of "better than the market".
Risk hint: the price of raw materials continues to rise, and the downstream demand is less prosperous.
