Core point of view: the company is a high-tech enterprise focusing on the R & D, production and sales of differentiated and functional biaxially oriented polyester film (BOPET film). Its main products include colored optoelectronic base film, transparent film and other functional films. The company's existing film production capacity of 42,000 tons / year, under construction capacity of 73,000 tons / year, capacity steady expansion.
From 2017 to 2021, the company's income and net profit increased steadily. In 2020-2021, the company achieved operating income of 377 million yuan, an increase of 69.66% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 0.74 million yuan, an increase of 66.76% over the same period last year. From 2019 to 2021, the company's film production was 1.52 million tons respectively, and its sales volume was 1.5 million tons. The production and sales volume expanded steadily, with a production and sales rate of more than 90 percent. According to the company's prospectus, the company expects 2022Q1 to achieve revenue of 168 million yuan, an increase of 14.06% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 37 million yuan, which is relatively stable over the same period last year.
The demand of polyester film industry is increasing year by year. In recent years, the demand of China's polyester film industry has increased year by year, and the apparent consumption has increased from 206 million tons / year in 2017 to 3.11 million tons / year in 2021, with an annual compound growth rate of 10.82%. The apparent consumption from January to February in 2022 is 604500 tons. As high-end functional thin film technology and equipment still rely on overseas, there is a "surplus of low-end products and a shortage of high-end products" in China.
The structural contradiction.
Achieve the advantage of differentiation through multiple channels. The company's main products are technologically advanced, and there is no risk of rapid iteration, and can produce a variety of differentiated polyester film products according to market demand. The company has established and maintained a relatively stable cooperative relationship with a number of high-quality customers. As of March 18, 2022, the company has a total of 49 patents, with strong market competitiveness, and the gross profit margin is at a high level.
Expand the production capacity of polyester film and strengthen the company's advantages. The net fund raised by IPO of the company is 1.018 billion yuan, which is mainly used to invest in projects such as "biaxially oriented polyester film production base construction project". Bi-directional stretch polyester film project is expected to invest 436 million yuan, which will help the company to solve the contradiction between strong market demand and insufficient production capacity, and consolidate its leading position in the field of segmentation. The company has a production capacity of 42000 tons and is under construction of 73000 tons. It is expected to reach production capacity by 2023.
Profit forecast and investment rating. We estimate that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 138 million yuan, 195 million yuan and 284 million yuan respectively, the EPS will be 1.72,2.44,3.54 yuan respectively, and the BPS in 2022 will be 21.20 yuan. With reference to the valuation of comparable companies, according to 2022 PE 23-24 times, given a reasonable value range of 39.56-41.28 yuan (corresponding to 2022 PB 1.87-1.95 times), covering for the first time given a "better than the market" rating.
Risk hint. The decline in demand for polyester film, the risk of fluctuations in raw material prices, and the intensification of market competition led to a decline in gross profit margin.
