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中汇集团(00382.HK):高质量办学先驱走出华南 布局全国

Zhonghui Group (00382.HK): A pioneer in running high-quality schools outside of South China and spread across the country

申萬宏源研究 ·  Apr 6, 2022 14:51  · Researches

Zhonghui Group is Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area's largest private business higher education group, and now operates six private education institutions in China. They are Guangzhou Chinese Business College, Chinese Business Vocational College, Guangdong Chinese Business Technical School, Sichuan City Vocational College, Sichuan City technician College and Hong Kong Dawan District Business School. The Group was listed on the Hong Kong main Board on July 16, 2019 and raised HK $630 million. The number of students in Zhonghui Group has reached 72000 by the end of the 22nd academic year, an increase of 16% over the same period last year. In fiscal year 21, the company's income reached 1.251 billion yuan, the adjusted net profit was 460 million yuan, and the adjusted net profit margin reached 36.7%.

Deep ploughing South China, high-quality schools to boost the volume and price. Zhonghui Group's Chinese business colleges and universities sit in the Dawan area of Guangdong, and have unique advantages in terms of student resources, ability to pay, policy support and so on. The net population inflow of Guangdong Province reached 770000 in 2020, further pushing the number of applicants for the college entrance examination to 783000, representing a ten-year compound growth rate of 1.8 per cent. At the same time, combined with the forecast of 61.2% gross enrollment rate of higher education in Guangdong Province in 2025, we expect Guangdong Province to release about 17700 enrollment places each year. On the other hand, Zhonghui Group's Guangzhou Chinese Business College and Chinese Business Vocational College focus on high-quality schools and invest significantly in teacher allocation, school-enterprise cooperation and student employment, so as to create a good reputation of the group and consolidate the reporting rate of freshmen in the group. Therefore, we estimate that the new enrollment of the company's Chinese business colleges and universities is expected to reach 18600 in the 24th academic year, representing a three-year compound growth rate of 12.5%. And the Group is actively expanding its campus to meet the growing needs of students, so we expect the number of full-time students of Guangzhou Chinese Business College and Chinese Business Vocational College to reach 3.09 and 21800 respectively. In addition, we estimate that the average training costs for undergraduate and junior college students across the country are 36000 yuan and 21000 yuan respectively, which still has room for growth of 32% and 26% compared with the average tuition fees of the two universities of the Chinese business department. I believe that as the company's high-quality school strategy continues to advance, excellent teaching reputation is expected to contribute to the further rise of tuition fees, which is expected for the 23rd academic year. The average tuition fees of Guangzhou Chinese Business College and Guangzhou Chinese Business Vocational College will reach 31100 yuan and 18700 yuan, corresponding to a compound growth rate of 5.3% and 4.3% in three years.

Consolidate the excellent reputation of Zhonghui Group by merging high-quality targets. Zhonghui Group officially joined Sichuan Urban Vocational College and Sichuan Urban technician College in January 2021. Among them, Sichuan City Vocational College ranks first in Sichuan private higher vocational colleges in 2020, ranks eighth in the national private higher vocational colleges, and is also a upgraded college planned by Sichuan Province during the 13th five-year Plan period. The purpose of the school's high-quality school has promoted the enrollment plan to 8731 in the 22nd academic year from 4126 in 17Universe 18 years, and the enrollment rate has been maintained at more than 85% all the year before the expansion of higher vocational enrollment. Therefore, we estimate that the number of students enrolled in Sichuan City Vocational College is expected to reach 18100 in the 24th academic year.

In addition, Sichuan Province will liberalize the price limit of tuition fees in 2020, and we believe that the tuition fee of 9800 yuan for freshmen in the school's 211,22 academic year will usher in a price increase cycle. On the other hand, the purpose of Sichuan colleges and universities is consistent with the development policy of Zhonghui Group, and after the merger, it is expected to work in synergy with the original Chinese business colleges and universities of the group, by incorporating the export of the business system that Chinese business universities are good at and the engineering system of Sichuan colleges and universities, the group's colleges and universities are expected to further expand their professional coverage, so as to increase the enrollment and enrollment scale.

Cover for the first time to give a buy rating. We expect that endogenesis and denotation will drive the company's performance growth synchronously. Thanks to the excellent geographical layout of the group's colleges and universities to obtain the dividend of the development of areas with scarce educational resources, and through the active expansion of the new campus, the number of students in the company will continue to grow. In addition, the group's high-quality school strategy will not only ensure excellent enrollment, but also further promote the increase of tuition fees, thus promoting the increase of volume and price of the group. In addition, the company will also pay attention to the opportunities of extension mergers and acquisitions, pay close attention to the dividend period of vocational education, and expand the scale of running a school. And through the cooperation between colleges and universities to consolidate the excellent brand of Zhonghui Group. We expect Zhonghui Group's adjusted net profit to reach RMB7371,837 million in the fiscal year 22-23-24, corresponding to earnings per share of RMB0.57exp 0.69max. Our DCF target price is HK $4.75, corresponding to a 67 per cent upside, covering the buy rating for the first time.

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