Summary of the report:
Deep ploughing baking oil subdivision field for more than 20 years, professionalism and excellent quality to build a leading advantage.
South overseas Chinese originated in Taiwan and took root in the mainland in 1996 to carry out baking oil, frozen dough and other related business. at present, three factories have been set up in Tianjin, Guangzhou and Shanghai. according to the application field, the company's products are mainly divided into five series: baking applied oil, light cream, stuffing, frozen dough and imported products, covering more than 200 varieties. From 2018 to 2021, the compound growth rate of revenue / net profit of the company was 6.7%, 9.9% and 9.9%, respectively, and the company was successfully listed in 2021. At the same time, with the recovery of downstream demand, the company's revenue / net profit for 21 years was 2.873 billion yuan / 368 million yuan respectively, an increase of 23.7% and 13.3% respectively. The major shareholder of the company is Taiwan-funded background and the ownership structure of the real controller is centralized, and the degree of marketization of operation and management is high. In addition, the company launched the first incentive plan after listing, anchored the three-year income target, and further bound the core talent. The performance evaluation requirement of the incentive plan is based on the 2021 revenue. The target revenue growth rate for 2020-2023 is not less than 25%, 45%, 65%, and the trigger value is 80% of the target value. If calculated on the basis of the target value, the corresponding income cagr for 2020-2023 is 18%, which is significantly faster than the pre-listing income performance.
The company has a comprehensive product layout and the oil business has a first-mover advantage. in recent years, it has cut into the high prosperity branch of frozen dough, and the speed of development is expected to accelerate. The baking oil market in China started relatively late and is still in the early stage of development. With the rapid development of baking oil industry, domestic baking oil enterprises gradually show a trend of brand and large-scale competition. We believe that the company's advantage lies in the deep ploughing of China's baking oil market for more than 20 years, and its product quality is in the leading level in China. With excellent product quality, rich product matrix and strong R & D strength, we have developed and accumulated stable downstream customers for many years. By providing a full range of consulting services, the company has established a strong customer stickiness and has a certain first-mover advantage in the baked oil and light cream market. At the same time, the company cut into frozen dough, a high-prosperity branch of the baking industry, and achieved rapid growth in frozen dough revenue, contributing to a new growth point of future revenue. Based on the strong core competitiveness of the company, the capacity bottleneck restricts the company's development speed in the past. With the gradual completion of fund-raising projects in the future, the company is expected to accelerate its development speed and grow steadily in the medium term.
Profit forecast: the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 378 million yuan, 489 million yuan and 617 million yuan respectively, an increase of 3%, 29% and 26% respectively over the same period last year. Give the company a target market capitalization of 12.3 billion yuan, corresponding to a 23-year valuation of 25 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: the epidemic leads to a slowdown in downstream demand, fluctuations in raw material prices, and intensified competition.