As a leader in the vertical real estate IT services industry, the company's recent performance and stock price performance fluctuated due to the poor performance of the real estate market as expected. After analysis, we believe that the real estate market will always be an important and large industry, and the active / passive adjustment of the management strategy of real estate enterprises does not mean that qualitative changes have taken place in the industry itself. on the contrary, IT service providers serving real estate enterprises will get greater opportunities in the development of strengthening fine management and accelerating digital transformation.
At the same time, the company has good industry card position, obvious competitive advantage, and has made the correct choice and layout of development strategy at the time of great changes in the real estate industry. In the future, it will benefit from the development of the industry, continue to expand market share, and realize its profit potential.
The real estate industry is still an important industry, the needs of fine operation and management accelerate the digital transformation of real estate enterprises, and the medium-and long-term real estate information and digital space is about 300 billion yuan. A series of regulation and control policies such as "three red lines" mark the end of the era of real estate capital dividend, but real estate is still a very important industry, in which the long-term fundamentals have not changed qualitatively. The reshuffle of the real estate industry has given birth to the demand for fine management of real estate enterprises, and digital means have become an effective way to achieve fine management. Under the low information rate of 0.1%, the demand for digital transformation of real estate enterprises has never been so urgent. Head real estate enterprises are the first to increase digital investment. In the medium and long term, as China has become a moderately developed country and the degree of real estate informatization is closer to that of developed countries, we expect that the digital space of real estate in China will reach 300 billion yuan.
The two-dimensional development of the company's market choice: from housing development to industry and stock operation, layout sinking market and state-owned enterprises, expanding and optimizing customer base. In the field of business, residential real estate development is the company's traditional advantage business area. when the growth rate of the residential real estate market slows down and tends to stock, on the one hand, the company vigorously develops the industry and infrastructure market, on the other hand, it actively explores the stock operation business. In terms of customer base expansion, on the one hand, based on the impact of real estate reshuffle and the characteristics of industry and stock operation business, the company increases the exploration of the customer base of state-owned enterprises; on the other hand, the digital demand of small and medium-sized real estate enterprises in the sinking market has also become a new growth direction of the company. In the current situation, the company's two-dimensional development in market choice has further improved the layout of the business area and obtained a new significant customer group increment.
Exploration of the company's product system: upgrade the product system of "scene Innovation-Core Business-Industrial Ecology" under the SaaS three-tier growth engine. Since its inception, its main product ERP focuses on the internal management information of real estate enterprises, and has been based on local deployment. Since 2014, the company has launched SaaS products such as cloud guest, cloud procurement, cloud chain, cloud space and so on.
With the demand for digital tools in the real estate industry becoming more diversified and three-dimensional, the company formally put forward the SaaS three-tier growth engine in January 2022, which redefined and upgraded the product system from the development dimension of "scene business-core management-industrial ecology", pointing out the direction for the comprehensive cloud development in the future. We believe that the release of the SaaS three-tier growth engine is another carding of the company's product system, which is conducive to examining the layout from a higher industry dimension, so as to promote the digital transformation of the real estate and even real estate industry more efficiently.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company's total operating income from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 21.7925.81 yuan / 3.226 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit returned to the parent is-337 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding EPS is-0.17 pm 0.15 pm 0.16 yuan, the PE is-47.6pm 57.2 pm 50.4 times, and the PS is 7.5 pm 6.3pm 5.1 times, respectively. The first coverage gives the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: when the development of the real estate industry is not as expected, the continuous pressure on the operation of real estate enterprises leads to the lower-than-expected amount of IT budget; the promotion of SaaS products is not as expected; the pressure of competition for R & D talents is intensified and the risk of product research and development is not as expected; the risk of emerging manufacturers entering the bureau and increasing competitive pressure; the risk that the public data used in the research report may lag behind or not be updated in a timely manner; the risk of deviation in industry scale measurement, etc.