Event: on March 1, Jinjia issued an announcement on overseas investment to set up a holding subsidiary and set up Shenzhen Yunpu Flying Box Technology Service Co., Ltd., providing supply chain services for e-cigarette and other brand customers.
The main business of Yanbiao rebounded, and the new business was beautiful. According to the performance of KuaiBao, the company achieved operating income of 5.085 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 21.32% over the same period last year, and the net profit returned to its mother was 1.006 billion yuan, an increase of 22.12% over the same period last year. After returning home, the non-net profit was deducted from 808 million yuan, an increase of 3.71% over the same period last year. Of this total, 21Q4 achieved an operating income of 1.435 billion yuan, an increase of 21.57% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 189 million yuan, an increase of 16.90% over the same period last year.
The company launched a restricted stock incentive plan in September 2021, in which the performance evaluation target is that the CAGR of home net profit will reach 23% from 2021 to 2023, and the growth rate of net profit in 2021 will not be less than 22%. The company successfully achieved the target growth rate of equity incentive, and the overall performance grew steadily.
Tobacco label main business benefit from structural upgrading, color boxes and other new business performance is beautiful. The company has an insight into the market trend of product packaging upgrading, and gradually expands the upgraded production line to a class of cigarette labels and high-quality cigarette boxes, driving performance growth with the optimization of product structure and the use of new materials to consolidate the leading advantage. (1) the sales revenue of tobacco label products in 2021 was 2.301 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.07% compared with the same period last year, mainly because the business in some regional markets was in a recovery period, but benefited from the active adjustment of product structure, the profit level is expected to be under control as a whole; (2) the sales revenue of color box products in 2021 was 1.136 billion yuan, an increase of 23.52% over the same period last year. The company continues to develop mid-and high-end production lines and expand industry-leading new customers. With the market trend of 3C product packaging upgrading, the company is gradually expanding production lines in the direction of new tobacco and daily chemical packaging, and the market share is expected to further increase.
New tobacco business may become a new performance growth point with the introduction of new tobacco regulatory policies, the industry is expected to accelerate clearance, and the company's high-standard production capacity and technical advantages build a product moat. Breakthroughs have been made in the extension of the new tobacco industry chain, customer expansion and capacity construction. The company's new tobacco business achieved revenue of 170 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 381.16% over the same period last year. (1) atomized e-cigarette: with the gradual landing of domestic e-cigarette policy supervision, the promotion of entry threshold is expected to promote market concentration. The company's forward-looking layout in the field of atomized e-cigarettes, from tobacco oil, OEM, brands to the comprehensive layout of overseas channels, has obvious competitive advantages. (2) HNB heating does not burn: at present, the company actively carries on the supply chain layout at home and abroad, constantly improving the depth and stickiness of cooperation with customers. Among them, Jiayu Technology supplies HNB cigarette sets as a joint venture company with Yunnan China Tobacco, Changyi Technology supplies HNB flavor and flavor for Sichuan China Tobacco and Yunnan China Tobacco, Jiaju Electronics produces Materia Medica cigarette cartridges and HNB cigarette sets to distribute the Japanese market.
Investment suggestion: Jinjia shares as a leading enterprise of tobacco label and large packaging, the main business of tobacco label has benefited from the smooth development of new businesses such as tobacco consumption resilience and color boxes. With the landing of regulatory policies, the new tobacco business is expected to become a new performance growth point of the company. We estimate that the operating income of Jinjia shares from 2021 to 2023 will be 50.85,65.05 and 8.538 billion yuan, up 21.32%, 27.94% and 31.24% over the same period last year, and the net profit will be 10.06 yuan, 13.33% and 1.792 billion yuan respectively, up 22.12%, 32.51% and 34.49% over the same period last year, corresponding to the PE of 22.8x, 17.2x and 12.8x.
Risk hints: the new tobacco policy falls short of the expected risk; the risk of raw material price fluctuation; the risk of delaying the process of capacity construction; the risk of intensified competition in the industry.
