Homing net profit is-34% compared with the same period last year, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
The company released its 21 annual report on March 29, with annual revenue of 24.2 billion yuan, + 33% compared with the same period last year, and net profit of 1.64 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year. Due to a better-than-expected decline in the company's profit margin and a slowdown in the pace of sales, we expect EPS to be 0.56 and 0.61 in 2022-2024 (1.05 in 2023 before 2022). Referring to the average 2022PE of the comparable company is 11.9 times (Wind consensus expectation), we think that the reasonable PE of the company in 2021 is 11.9 times, the target price is 6.66 yuan (the previous value is 6.18 yuan), and the "overweight" rating is maintained.
The decline of the gross profit margin of real estate development leads to the increase of income without profit.
For the whole year, the settlement scale of real estate development increased, with revenue from + 38% to 21.86 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. The downward trend of real estate profit margin led to a gross profit margin of 16.7% compared with the same period last year. At the same time, due to the interest income earned from the termination of the central city plot in the same period last year, the financial expenses for 21 years increased by 2.8 billion compared with the same period last year, resulting in a year-on-year decline in net profit. The sharp decline in gross profit margin is mainly due to the low gross profit margin (9.9%, year-on-year-22.5pct) of projects in Chengdu and Chongqing. However, as of the end of the reporting period, Chengdu and Chongqing accounts for only 11% of the settlement area, and we expect the company's gross profit margin to hit bottom and pick up in the future.
Develop sales and hold the operation plate to recover steadily
Due to the declining prosperity of the industry, the company has adopted a price-for-volume strategy, and the sales scale has declined. In 21 years, the company achieved a sales area of 1.75 million square meters, the same as the same period last year, the sales amount was 33.9 billion yuan,-16% year-on-year. Among them, residential sales amount is 29.8 billion yuan, commercial real estate sales amount is 4.1 billion yuan. Holding property sector, property rental / property management business revenue from + 5.1 Universe 27.2% to 1.75 billion Universe 4.2 billion respectively. Among them, the rental rate of the office sector has increased steadily, and the commercial sector has achieved rapid growth through integration and coordination; the gross profit margin of the property management sector has rebounded to-6.1% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the continuous upgrading and renovation of the hotel / culture and travel sector, the improvement of service quality, the strengthening of cost control and the effective recovery of business performance.
The strength of expansion has been restored, and the debt ratio has improved steadily.
The company insists on value investment, increases core cities and Yangtze River Delta regional expansion in 21 years, obtains 8 projects in Shanghai, Gu'an, Wuxi, Suzhou, Jiaxing, Kunshan and Tianjin, and adds 1.33 million square meters of land, + 24% over the same period last year. The total price of new land rights and interests is 6.5 billion yuan, + 31% compared with the same period last year. As of the end of 21 years, the total unsettled area of the company is about 1651.5 million square meters, which is-3.3% of the same period last year. Based on the 21-year sales area, it can maintain 9 years of development. By the end of 2021, the company's net debt ratio, asset-liability ratio deducting accounts received in advance, and short-term debt coverage were 146%, 66% and 140% respectively, which were all better than those at the end of 2020. In February and March of 22, 1.14 billion five-year notes and corporate bonds were issued in February and March, respectively, with an interest rate of only 3.37% and 3.48%, demonstrating the advantage of financing.
Risk tips: epidemic situation, industry policy, industry downward, fair value change profit and loss risk.
