Event: the company announced its results for 2021, with a total revenue of 2.184 billion yuan, an increase of 28.1% over the same period last year, basically in line with market expectations; a gross profit of 1.751 billion yuan, corresponding to a gross profit of 80.2%, an increase of 1.6 pct over the same period last year; a net loss of 496 million yuan, mainly due to an increase in share-based compensation expenses, and the continued strategic investment of Skyline PaaS platform increased R & D expenditure. The net profit of Non-GAAP was 307 million yuan, down 19.7% from the same period last year, corresponding to the net interest rate of 14.1% of Non-GAAP.
Comments: SaaS business growth is steady, replacing ERP as the main driver of the company's revenue. 2H21 real estate financing policy tightening led to some real estate enterprises facing financial pressure, frequent credit risk events, the company short-term customer pressure. 1) SaaS business: revenue: 1.338 billion yuan, an increase of 53.5% over the same period last year, accounting for 61.2% of the revenue, mainly due to the upgrade of application scenarios and the improvement of market recognition. Among them, Yunke business "steady increase in volume and price", achieving revenue of 1.025 billion yuan (yoy+53.3%), covering 16600 sales offices (yoy+11%), and ARPU increased by 40% to 62000 yuan. Cloud chain business income of 189 million yuan (yoy+37.6%), driven by the rapid improvement of permeability, cloud chain cooperation site number of 7500 (yoy+83%). 2) ERP business: the revenue was 847 million yuan, which was only 1.5% lower than expected compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the recession of the real estate industry, the company's proactive strategic transformation and the continuing impact of the epidemic.
Investment in R & D and sales has been increased, and short-term profitability has been hindered. 1) the company continues to increase the research and development of Skyline platform, build the blueprint of "SaaS+PaaS+ ecology", expand the R & D team to 2123 people, and increase the R & D fee to 29.4% 8.5pct compared with the same period last year. 2) expand the sales team, the increase in SaaS product revenue leads to an increase in dealer commission fees, and the sales rate is increased by 6.4pct to 41.1% compared with the same period last year.
The company embraces the digitalization of state-owned enterprises and cuts into the blue ocean market. State-owned enterprises use ERP and SaaS for industrial development with high willingness, relatively abundant funds and strong anti-risk awareness, which is good for SaaS, the head of real estate. 2H21 has won projects of state-owned enterprises such as Wuhan Urban Construction, Fuzhou Urban Investment, Jinan Urban Construction, etc., and the contribution of customers' income of state-owned enterprises has increased from 28% in 20 years to 33% in 21 years. Shenzhen Bay Science and Technology Park and other projects have been signed in 22 years, and the transformation of VIP income is expected.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating: the company is the leader in real estate SaaS track, with leading market share and stronger customer stickiness; with the continuous growth of customer unit price under the extension of SaaS business, the improvement of cloud chain penetration is expected to become another growth engine of SaaS business; the transformation of ERP subscription system affects revenue and profit in the short term, but helps to tap the payment potential of the sagging market in the long term. In view of the fact that it will take time to boost the effect of the real estate policy, and the short-term expansion pressure under the influence of the epidemic, we slightly reduce our operating revenue forecast for 22-23 to 2.506 billion yuan (4.0% from the previous forecast-1.1%). During the business development period, we carefully expect the continued increase in R & D and sales investment. The non-GAAP net profit forecast for 22-23 years is reduced to 185,000,000 yuan (compared with the previous forecast-58.1% Universe 65.7%).
To maintain the 20xPE valuation of ERP business for 22 years, due to the overall pressure on the valuation of SaaS industry, we lowered the PS valuation of SaaS business to 14x, corresponding to the 22-year target price of HK $17.4; due to the increased concentration of the real estate industry and a clear trend of digital transformation, the company's performance is of long-term growth and maintains a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: customer expansion is not as expected; competition in the cloud services market intensifies.