In the continuous expansion of copper clad laminate, the product structure is continuously optimized. In recent years, the company's strategy focused on high-end copper clad laminate products, in high-frequency, high-speed, HDI and other areas of smooth progress, key customer certification and batch delivery work in an orderly manner. While the pattern of the copper clad laminate industry continues to focus, and the voice of the leading manufacturers is enhanced. Combined with the background of global semiconductor shortage this year, the company seizes the industry opportunities, and the capacity expansion is smooth. In the second half of the year, the high-end production capacity of 450,000 sheets / month of Qingshan Lake Phase II was put into production smoothly, and the net profit in the first three quarters increased by 132% compared with the same period last year. Considering the subsequent capacity layout in Zhuhai, the company will continue to expand production in the future, and further strengthen the collaborative relationship with downstream customers. Copper clad laminate business is expected to achieve sustained growth.
The market space of aluminum-plastic film is large, and domestic substitution is a major trend of the industry. Aluminum-plastic film, as the key material of soft-package lithium battery, has high technical difficulty and high barrier to entry. At present, domestic aluminum-plastic film mainly depends on imports from Japan.
Aluminum-plastic film accounts for about 20% of the cost of soft-package lithium battery, and is widely used in many fields, such as consumer electronics, power battery, energy storage and so on. It is an important technical route. With the rapid growth of new energy industry, the market demand and gap will continue to expand in the future. Considering that Japanese enterprises are relatively cautious in expanding production and the price is high, the domestic permeability is still very low, opening up the domestic industrial chain of aluminum-plastic film and greatly reducing the product cost. The realization of domestic substitution is a major trend of the industry.
Taking the lead in investing in aluminum-plastic film is expected to become a new driving force for growth. The company invested in the trial production line of aluminum-plastic film in 2017. According to the company announcement, it has been certified by some customers and delivered in batches. It is the first domestic manufacturer to enter the field of aluminum-plastic film. Considering the rapid development of the industry, the company is building a first phase expansion project with an annual output of 36 million square meters in the Qingshan Lake intelligent manufacturing base to strengthen the layout of the aluminum-plastic film field by optimizing the existing production line and introducing leading equipment technology.
With the substantial increase in production capacity, the company is expected to achieve a continuous breakthrough from consumer electronics to the small power market, and finally enter the power market. The company firmly lays out the aluminum and plastic film business, and is expected to create a new growth point to drive growth after CCL.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 30.01max 38.08 / 4.664 billion, the net profit of return to the mother will be 2.49max 344pm 488 million, and the corresponding EPS will be 1.75max 2.42max 3.43 yuan. The company focuses on high-frequency and high-speed products, develops downstream industrial giants, takes the lead in the layout of aluminum and plastic film business, has a large space for domestic substitution in the medium and long term, and is expected to enter the performance continuous cash period in the next few years and maintain the "buy" evaluation.
Risk hint: the certification progress of high-speed and high-frequency board is not as expected; the progress of 5G is not as expected; the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply.
