Company announcement mid-2021: the first half of the net profit returned to the mother was 8.72 billion yuan, an increase of 127.1% over the same period last year.
1) performance: in the first half of the year, the company achieved 17.36 billion yuan in revenue, + 44.2% compared with the same period last year; the net profit returned to the home was 8.72 billion yuan, + 127.1% compared with the same period last year, which was + 41% higher than the compound growth rate of 1H19; the net profit from non-return was 8.09 billion yuan, + 133.0% compared with the same period last year, and + 40% higher than the compound growth rate of 1H19 Second-quarter revenue was 9.68 billion, year-on-year + 45.7%; homed net profit 5.76 billion, year-on-year + 165.4%, compared with 19Q2 compound growth rate + 53%; deduction of non-homed net profit 5.24 billion yuan, year-on-year + 173.6%, compared with 19Q2 compound growth rate + 52%.
2) Investment income: 4.9 billion in the first half of the year, + 114.1% compared with the same period last year, 3.74 billion compared with the compound growth rate of 1H19 + 43%, + 206.7% compared with the same period last year, and + 71% compared with the compound growth rate of 19Q2. The net profit of associated enterprises increased significantly in the first half of the year, of which the net profit of OOCL, Postal Savings Bank of China and Bank of Shanghai was 2.81 billion US dollars, 41.01 billion yuan and 12.28 billion yuan respectively, which was + 2654%, + 22% and + 10% respectively compared with the same period last year.
3) profit margin: the gross profit margin in the first half of the year is 44.7%, year-on-year + 7.5pts, 14.0pts higher than 1H19; net return rate is 50.2%, year-on-year + 18.3pts, 24.8pts higher than 1H19; non-return net profit rate is 46.6%, year-on-year + 17.8pts, higher 22.6pts than 1H19. Q2 gross profit margin 42.0%, year-on-year + 2.6pts, 10.4pts higher than 19Q2; net return rate 59.6%, year-on-year + 26.9pts, 32.5pts higher than 19Q2; deduction of non-return net profit rate 54.1%, year-on-year + 25.3pts, 28.9pts higher than 19Q2.
Under the magnificent demeanor of container transportation, the volume and price of the main container industry rose, and the throughput in the first half of the year was + 3.2% higher than that of 1H19.
1) the cargo throughput of the home port in the first half and second quarter was 2.7 and 140 million tons respectively, which was + 14.6% and + 12.1% respectively compared with the same period last year, with a compound growth rate of-0.4% and + 0.9% compared with the same period in 19 years. The container throughput in the first half and second quarter was 2294 and 1160 TEU respectively, an increase of + 14.3% and + 8.1% over the same period last year, and a compound growth rate of + 3.2% and + 2.1% over the same period in 1919, mainly due to the low base of the epidemic last year and the strong demand for replenishment in Europe and the United States. 2) in terms of price, based on the revenue of the container business segment, the rate of the main container business increased by about 4% in the first half compared with the same period last year. 3) in the first half of the year, the external income of the container business, port services and port logistics divisions increased by 19.4%, 3.8% and 27.0% compared with the same period last year, and the segment net profit increased by + 47.7%,-36.5% and + 161.7% respectively compared with the same period last year.
In terms of real estate business, the subsidiaries Ruitai Development of Shanghai Group and Ruixiang Real Estate Development of Shanghai Group have increased their real estate sales revenue, which is expected to contribute considerable profits.
Looking forward to the third quarter: affected by typhoon weather and epidemic situation, the container throughput of the eight hub ports in July, early August and mid-August was-1.1%, + 4.4% and + 2.7% compared with the same period last year. However, considering that there is still room for replenishment in Europe and the United States, while overlaying the peak shipping season, the American Retail Federation expects the number of imported boxes to grow by 15.6%, 12.9% and 4.7% year-on-year from July to September, with a compound growth rate of 6.4%, 9.7% and 8.7% over the same period in 19 years. It is expected that Q3 container demand will remain ultra-high, the company's throughput will remain high, and the main industry will continue to benefit.
Investment advice: 1) profit forecast: considering the strong demand for global container trade in the past 21 years, the strong recovery of the main container industry and the expected rise in volume and price, and the significant contribution of the investment income of the associated enterprises, we have raised the 2021-2023 net profit forecast to 141.2, 129.3 and 12.01 billion yuan (the original forecast is 98, 10.6 billion and 11 billion), and the three-year EPS is 0.61,0.56,0.52 respectively. Corresponding to the current PE is 9, 9, 10 times. 2) Investment suggestion: with reference to the company's PE hub in the past three years, the company is valued at 12 times PE in 2022, corresponding to an one-year target price of RMB6.70. maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk hint: the impact of the epidemic on the throughput of the port industry is greater than expected, and the world economy has declined sharply.