This article was compiled from Huatai Securities's “Golden Decade” of Nuggets Smart Cars

2020-2030 is a “golden decade” for the development of intelligent driving

On November 11, the intelligent connected vehicle technology roadmap 2.0 was officially released at the 2020 World Intelligent Connected Vehicle Conference. The penetration rate of L2-L3 models is expected to increase rapidly.

According to the national plan, the sales volume of L2-L3 class intelligent connected vehicles in 2020-2025 accounted for more than 50% of total automobile sales in that year, L4 class intelligent connected vehicles began to enter the market, the new C-V2X terminal vehicle assembly rate reached 50%, and commercial applications of L4 class vehicles were carried out in specific scenarios and limited regions;

By 2026-2030, L2-L3 intelligent connected vehicles will account for more than 70% of sales. L4 vehicles will be widely used on highways and large-scale applications on some urban roads; by 2031-2035, various types of connected vehicle-type high-speed autonomous vehicles will be widely operated.

Domestic L3 class mass-produced models are expected to be launched in 2020-2021

At present, the high-end models of various car companies have basically implemented L2 level driving assistance, and the penetration rate of advanced autonomous driving systems is expected to increase further in the future.

In 2020-2021, there will be L3 class models that can be mass-produced, and L5 level of fully autonomous driving around 2025: in 2020, Changan Automobile launched the L3 class model Uni-T; GAC Group launched the AionLX, a mass-producible L3 class model; SAIC Motor Group will launch the L3 mass-produced MarvelXPro; Great Wall may achieve L2.9 level intelligent driving applications in Q2 2020; Geely plans to implement G-Pilot 3.0 applications in 2020; BYD has already achieved L2+ level autonomous driving.

Foreign car companies are developing L3 or L4 class models. Currently, most high-end models of foreign car companies can be equipped with L2 level driver assistance systems. At this stage, they are mainly developing L3 or L4 autonomous driving technology.

As two giants in the field of autonomous driving, Waymo and GM are leading the way in research on autonomous driving technology.

GM launched the L4 class cruiseAV in 2019. Mass production has not yet been achieved due to regulations. It plans to launch the L5 class cruiseOrigin in 2022. Affected by relevant regulations and other factors, the Audi A8L, an L3 class model that can be mass-produced, faces the dilemma of “mass production difficulties.”

Waymo, in collaboration with GM Cruise, Lyft and other companies, is urging the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to enact new autonomous driving regulations as soon as possible, remove unnecessary regulatory barriers on the premise of ensuring safety, allow cars without steering wheels or brake pedals to “hit the road”, accelerate the development of autonomous driving technology, and realize the vision of “driverless driving” as soon as possible.

The smart cockpit has become the focus of product differentiation

A smart car consists of three parts: a car network, a smart cockpit, and autonomous driving. The main function of a smart cockpit is comfort and entertainment, including human-computer interaction, in-vehicle terminals, smart seats, and emotional design.

The main components of the smart cockpit include an in-vehicle infotainment system (mainly front seat center control screen), LCD instrument panel, rear seat center control screen, head-up display (HUD), streaming media rearview mirror, voice control, etc. All functions in the smart cockpit are integrated into one system, and all functions are realized under a set of chips and software drivers. The entire smart cockpit industry chain includes upstream second-tier suppliers, midstream first-tier suppliers, downstream OEMs (front assembly), and 4S stores (rear assembly).

The domestic smart cockpit market space is expected to exceed 110 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 17% from 2021-2025.

From ADAS to autonomous driving, the industrial chain is growing rapidly

The autonomous driving industry chain is divided into three systems: perception, decision making, and execution.

As the level of autonomous driving increases, driving assistance functions are gradually increasing:

The main functions of L1 level autonomous driving include ACC-adaptive cruise and LDW-lane departure warning;

L2 level autonomous driving added three functions: PA-Auto Parking and LKA- Lane Keeping Assist;

L3 level autonomous driving added three functions: AEB-automatic emergency braking, DM-driver monitoring, and TJA-congested driving assistance;

The L4 level added comprehensive analysis of APHighway Expressway autonomous driving and sensorFusion sensor data sets;

Level L5 enables fully autonomous driving

According to Roland Berger data, the global autonomous vehicle side system market size is 113.8 billion US dollars in 2020, and the market size is expected to reach 500 billion US dollars by 2030, with a compound growth rate of 16%. Among them, chips, sensors, and software algorithms will contribute the main increase.

Will bull stocks double on the rapidly growing Golden Track?

Smart cockpits and ADAS systems have become important features for differentiation and mid-to-high-end self-brand differentiation. Joint venture brands may follow suit, and the penetration rate of smart cockpits and ADAS systems is expected to increase rapidly. In the next ten years, smart car industry chain companies are expected to benefit from the increase in the penetration rate of smart cars, grow rapidly, have broad scope for future development, and have high investment value.

In addition, the Gaogong Smart Vehicle industry chain list is also worth referring to.

Edit/jasonzeng