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华泰柏瑞中证光伏产业ETF投资价值分析

Analysis of ETF Investment value of Huatai Barry China Securities Photovoltaic Industry

海通證券 ·  Dec 21, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Huatai Barry China Securities Photovoltaic Industry ETF takes the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index as the target index, which is the only product on the market that focuses on photovoltaic themes. The fund adopts a passive index investment strategy, closely tracks the target index, seeks to minimize tracking deviation and tracking error, and strives to control the daily average tracking deviation within 0.2% and the annualized tracking error within 2%. The establishment date of the fund is December 7, 2020 and the listing date is December 18, 2020.

Investment value analysis of China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index: the "photovoltaic" attribute is pure and distinct. The constituent stocks of China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index completely cover the upper, middle and lower reaches of the photovoltaic industry chain, and the "photovoltaic" attribute is distinct. At the same time, the main components of photovoltaic business account for a high proportion of revenue, "photovoltaic" attribute is pure. The component with the top index weight has a large stock market value and a higher daily turnover rate. Index constituent stocks grow rapidly from 2019 to 2020Q1-3, and consistent expectations also show that research institutions have higher expectations for the performance growth of the photovoltaic industry in the next three years; under the background of the gradual increase in the proportion of A-share institutions, leading companies with stable industry status and excellent financial qualifications will attract more capital allocation. From the position of the active fund, we can also see that in recent years, the proportion of the fund's position in the constituent stocks with the top weight of the photovoltaic industry index has increased as a whole, and the northbound fund Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect has also continued to increase its holdings. From the perspective of index performance, the historical performance of China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index is outstanding, and the income-risk ratio ranks in the forefront; and in the past two years, the performance of China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index is better than the Pan-New Energy Index and the broad-based index of major markets.

Analysis of the development prospects of the photovoltaic industry: 1) the photovoltaic industry continues to grow, and China leads the world in photovoltaic. According to the statistics of the International Energy Agency, the global installed photovoltaic 114.9GW was newly installed in 2019, with a cumulative installed 617.2GW, but at present, only 3% of the global electricity is provided by photovoltaic power generation, which has great room for improvement. China has made remarkable achievements in photovoltaic applications: first, China has become the world's largest photovoltaic application market, ranking first in the world in terms of newly installed capacity for seven consecutive years and cumulative installation for five consecutive years. Secondly, China leads the world in photovoltaic manufacturing, accounting for 67%, 97%, 79% and 71% of global output of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery wafers and modules respectively in 2019. The continuous decline in cost has become the core driving force for the development of the photovoltaic industry and Chinese enterprises. 2) Photovoltaic development to a new level during the 14th five-year Plan. General Secretary Xi delivered an important speech at the general debate of the United Nations General Assembly, pointing out that China's carbon dioxide emissions strive to reach a peak by 2030 and carbon neutralization by 2060. we expect that under this goal, photovoltaic development is expected to reach a new level during the 14th five-year Plan period, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 300-400GW in five years. And with the promotion of UHV construction and the reduction of energy storage costs, the consumption bottleneck of the industry is expected to continue to be broken through. We expect that the annual new photovoltaic installation is expected to grow from close to 50GW at the beginning of the 14th five-year Plan to 100GW at the end of the 14th five-year Plan. 3) the overseas carbon emission reduction continues to increase, and the global sustained growth appears. The European Climate Act in October 2020 adjusts the carbon reduction target to reduce carbon emissions by 60% by 2030. We expect that by 2030, the European Union is expected to add 48GW photovoltaic + 20GW wind power annually; in the United States, renewable energy accounts for about 18% of electricity generation in 2019, assuming that it will increase to 30% by 2030, corresponding to an average annual increase in photovoltaic 31GW + wind power 11GW. Photovoltaic has obvious cost advantage overseas, and it has become the cheapest electricity in many countries. We expect the global installed capacity to exceed 200GW in 2022 and surpass 300GW in 2025.

Fund manager investment ability analysis: fund manager Huatai Perry Fund has rich product management experience in the field of ETF and will strongly support the investment and daily operation of Huatai Perry's photovoltaic industry ETF. Ms. Li Qian, the fund manager, has better historical performance and better index tracking effect.

Risk hint. 1) according to the objective data and evaluation indicators, this paper makes no judgment on the future trend and investment suggestions; 2) the stock position of index products is higher than that of active stock products, and it is relatively more volatile. It is suitable for investors with high risk tolerance. 3) Industry / theme index funds track industry / theme index, which is more vulnerable to policy impact and fluctuates more than the general broad-based index.

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