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新光光电(688011)重大事项点评:大单奠定2021开门红 制导模式红外化已然趋势

中信證券 ·  Dec 18, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  The company recently announced the signing of a large order, and the peak military order season has arrived, improving the certainty of 2021 performance. The restricted stock incentive plan binds core technical personnel and helps maintain the company's competitive advantage. Maintain the target price of 93.24 yuan and maintain the “buy” rating. Large orders were signed to enhance the certainty of 2021 results. The company recently announced that it has signed a 74.25 million yuan contract for a type of long-wave infrared imaging optical lens, accounting for 38.75% of the 2019 annual revenue. The order volume is good, which is expected to add certainty to the 2021 performance. According to industry regulations, we expect this order to be one batch of orders for this model, and subsequent orders for other batches or other models of this model are worth looking forward to. The peak order season has arrived, and the company has benefited greatly as a leader in missile optical imaging guidance. The company is a leading domestic missile optical imaging guidance company and maintains close cooperation with two major domestic missile production groups (Aerospace Science and Engineering, Aerospace Science and Technology). Due to factors such as current geopolitical complexity, inventory replenishment due to the arms race, and demand for ammunition caused by frequent live fire exercises, and strong demand from downstream customers, we believe that the end of the year and the beginning of the year is the peak season for orders in the military industry chain. As a high-precision representative, procurement priorities in the missile industry chain will favor leading suppliers with obvious technical advantages and stable supply over a long period of time. The restricted stock incentive plan binds core technical personnel, and technological leadership creates a competitive advantage for the company. Recently, the company announced a restricted stock incentive plan. It plans to grant 1 million restricted shares to 31 incentive recipients, with a corresponding grant price of 14.8 yuan/share to achieve binding for core technical personnel. The incentive plan performance assessment covers 2021-2023, corresponding to the assessed revenue target of 2.6/34/4.4 million, corresponding to an average annual compound growth rate of about 30%, providing basic bottom line guidelines for subsequent steady growth. At the same time, under the trend of gradually upgrading the current stock of missiles to infrared/radar dual-mode guidance and focusing on infrared guidance for new models, technological leadership will ensure that the company has a very prominent competitive advantage in winning bids for subsequent orders. Risk factors: Delayed product delivery and slower than expected capacity expansion. Investment advice: The company recently signed a large order, and the peak military order season has arrived, improving the certainty of 2021 performance. The restricted stock incentive plan binds core technical personnel and helps maintain the company's competitive advantage. Maintain the company's 2020-2022 EPS forecast at 0.66 yuan, 1.04 yuan, and 1.63 yuan, respectively, and maintain the target price of 93.24 yuan, corresponding to 90 times the PE valuation in 2021, maintaining the “buy” rating.

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