This report describes in detail the two important investment points of the company: through the layout of multi-dosage forms of paramivir (injection, inhaled solution, dry powder inhaler), the new generation of anti-influenza drug NX-2016, and the current mainstream anti-influenza variety oseltamivir new dosage form (dry suspension), the company has gradually formed a multi-variety and multi-dose anti-influenza platform, and paramivir is expected to become a 10 billion-level single. The planned acquisition of Xingmeng Biology has won billions of rabies McAbs, which is expected to be the driving force for the rapid growth of the company's performance in the future.
The company has gradually formed a multi-variety, multi-dosage form anti-influenza platform, 10 billion-level large single product paramivir rapid release. There are a large number of influenza cases, which can cause 3 million to 5 million severe cases in the world every year, and the number of influenza cases in China has exceeded one million in the past two years. At present, the sales of oseltamivir, the mainstream drug, is about 7 billion yuan, and paramivir is expected to become the next major single item of influenza medicine. Paramivir injection is the first NAIs to be administered intravenously in the whole year of age in China. It can be released quickly after it is included in health insurance, with quick effect and long duration. It provides a new treatment option for patients with severe influenza, patients who can not accept inhalation or oral administration, and patients with poor efficacy or drug resistance due to other NAIs. In addition, because mild patients only need a single intravenous drip, patients with paramivir injection have better compliance. It is estimated that the market space of influenza in China is about 36.7 billion yuan, and the peak sales of paramivir injection is about 3.7 billion yuan (the permeability is 10%). Under optimistic circumstances, it can exceed 5 billion yuan (the permeability is more than 14%). In addition, the company is conducting clinical trials of palamivir inhalation solution, which is expected to help paramivir become a 10 billion-grade single product. Through the layout of multi-dosage forms of paramivir (injection, inhaled solution, dry powder inhaler), the new generation of anti-influenza drug NX-2016, and the current mainstream anti-influenza variety oseltamivir new dosage form (dry suspension), the company has gradually formed a multi-variety and multi-form anti-influenza platform, which is expected to occupy a larger market share of influenza market in the future.
Acquire Xingmeng Biology and get billions of rabies McAbs. There are many patients with rabies III exposure, which is estimated to be about 5 million to 7 million, but in practice, it is difficult to simply evaluate and distinguish between II exposure and III exposure (the combined ratio of the two is about 90%). Therefore, we estimate that the overall market demand for rabies immunity is much more than 4000 million. Due to the limited production capacity of HRIG, the market gap of passive immune agents has existed for a long time. The highest number of HRIG issued in recent years (2019) is only 12.26 million, which is still a big gap from the 3000-40 million needed by the market. Monoclonal antibody products are not limited by production capacity and are obtained by cell fermentation. Clinical data of listed products show that the efficacy of rabies monoclonal antibody is not inferior to that of HRIG. There are few rabies McAb R & D enterprises in China, only North China Pharmaceutical and Xingmeng Biology (Nanxin Pharmaceutical) layout. Xingmeng biological compound preparation theoretically has a more comprehensive neutralization ability, the layout of the global multicenter clinical practice to open up overseas markets, the international multicenter phase IIb/III clinical trial is under way, and the phase III clinical trial has officially started in Chinese mainland. The preliminary clinical results show that it is better than HRIG. Assuming that the price of rabies monoclonal antibody is similar to that of HRIG products, and considering the good competition pattern, we believe that Xingmeng's rabies monoclonal antibody products are expected to become billions of large varieties, and have the potential to further expand the sales space overseas.
Profit forecast and valuation. Leaving aside Xingmeng Biology for the time being, the company's revenue from 2020 to 2022 is expected to reach 1.116 billion yuan, 1.54 billion yuan and 2.161 billion yuan, an increase of 10.0%, 38.0% and 40.4% over the same period last year, and its net profit is 109 million yuan, 183 million yuan and 271 million yuan, an increase of 19.6%, 67.0% and 48.2% over the same period last year. The corresponding PE is 76x, 45x and 31x. Cover for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: product sales are less than expected risk; product research and development failure risk; industrial policy negative impact risk; major asset restructuring failure risk.