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湘油泵(603319):变速箱泵切入工程机械领域 订单饱满业绩有望持续高增!

申萬宏源研究 ·  Dec 15, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Announcement: The company announced on the investor exchange platform that it has recently received a fixed notice for new products from Soter Transmission Equipment Co., Ltd., and the company will develop and support transmission pump products for Soter Transmission as a parts supplier for Soter Transmission. Supporting Soter transmission has entered the field of construction machinery, and import substitution has taken it to a higher level. The company's main pump business is rooted in commercial vehicles and has actively broken through into passenger cars. Its import substitution process continues to be implemented, and new fixed orders have been frequently received recently. (1) In terms of transmission pumps, the company recently announced that it is developing and supporting the gearbox pump business for Soter Transmission. At the same time, it is the exclusive supplier for this project. It is expected to be mass-produced and launched in the fourth quarter of 2021, with an annual demand of 200,000 units/year. Soter Transmission is a professional transmission manufacturer under the Sany Group. Its transmission products are mainly used in construction machinery. This package means that the company has made significant progress in the transmission oil pump business in the field of construction machinery. In addition, the company is also designated by Geely Xuanfu for passenger car transmission oil pumps, so the passenger car transmission oil pump field includes PSA, Changan Aoyama, Geely Xuanfu, Toyota (new energy), Great Wall Honeycomb Drive, SAIC, GAC, BYD, and Shengrui Transmission. (2) In terms of engine oil pumps, since the fourth quarter of 2020, the company has successively been designated for Nanjing Iveco's “engine oil pump vacuum pump assembly” (double pump). Geely Automobile's mass production scale is 40,000 units/month, and the engine oil pump business has expanded smoothly in the commercial vehicle/passenger vehicle sector, and there are plenty of orders on hand. Overall, the company's traditional pump business position is stable, and there are plenty of new orders on hand. ① Commercial vehicles: The diesel engine pump business continues to upgrade, entering overseas leaders such as Cummins, Caterpillar, Scania, and John Deere in the US, as well as high-end supply systems such as high-horsepower generator sets and marine power. The net increase in revenue is expected to reach 4-5 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023. ② Passenger cars: The transmission pump business added customers Toyota Motor (New Energy), PSA, and Changan Aoyama; the engine oil pump business entered global joint venture support systems such as Geely, Nissan of Japan, Ford of the United States, and Peugeot Citroen of France, and driven up unit prices after high-value-added variable displacement oil pumps were put into production. It is expected that by 2022 to 2023, the net revenue increase will reach 4-5 billion yuan. In short, in the context of accelerated import substitution, the company's main business added many new orders, including Geely and Soter Transmission (Sany Group). It is anticipated that from 2022 to 2023, additional revenue corresponding to on-hand orders could reach 800 to 10 billion yuan. Dongjia Intelligent's forward-looking layout EPS control system opens the intelligent driving executive terminal entrance. In 2019, the company established Dongjia Intelligence as a joint venture with the controlling shareholder and Elida, which it controls, to enter the EPS field. As an entry point for intelligent driving, the EPS system is expected to continue to increase the value of bicycles according to different functional levels. At the same time, as an enterprise dedicated to EPS R&D and production for 20 years, Elida has more than 120 R&D personnel and independent intellectual property rights for EPS core components, and is one of the earliest suppliers with the ability to jointly develop EPS software and hardware. The supporting relationship has achieved breakthroughs from independent customers such as Changan Automobile and Dongfeng Xiaokang to joint ventures such as Volkswagen Group and Dongfeng Peugeot, and a large range of EPS products have entered the joint venture system, opening up new growth space. Maintain profit forecasts and maintain buying ratings. The company's traditional main business was upgraded from commercial vehicles to a passenger car system with more space, with better growth and stability, and the company began supporting EPS control systems, and the fundamentals changed. It is estimated that in 2020-2022, the company is expected to achieve operating income of 12.2, 15.1, and 1.86 billion yuan, corresponding to net profit of 150, 220, and 280 million yuan, an increase of 66%, 44%, and 26% year-on-year, corresponding to PE 30, 21, and 17 times. Keep recommending and maintain the buy rating! Core risks: A sharp decline in commercial vehicle sales; changes in the overseas market environment.

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