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皇氏集团(002329):主业稳态发展 数智信息加持

Huangshi Group (002329): the steady-state development of digital intelligence and information.

東興證券 ·  Nov 20, 2020 00:00  · Researches

The company's main business develops steadily, and the mathematical intelligence information expands the business extension in parallel. The company is mainly engaged in the production, processing and sales of liquid dairy products, as well as the dairy farming and forage planting business associated with this industry; the dairy sector includes the whole industry chain business such as forage planting, dairy farming, dairy processing and sales. The main products are pasteurized milk, buffalo milk, characteristic fruit milk, yogurt and other liquid dairy products and milk drinks with black and white milk and buffalo milk as the main raw materials. With the digital intelligence industry as the leading core, and relying on cloud computing, big data and other intelligent technologies and massive data foundation, the mathematical intelligence information plate has built a powerful online service platform, mainly serving finance, Internet, communications, e-commerce, public utilities, modern logistics and other industries.

The advantages of dairy products focus on product category differentiation and regional channel mastery. Over the past 20 years, the dairy sector has grown at an annualized rate of 10-15%. In terms of products, the company focuses on the characteristic product buffalo milk. According to the determination of the scientific research department, the nutritional value of 1 kilogram of buffalo milk is equivalent to 1.85 kilograms of black and white flower milk; the fat, protein and lactose content of water milk is several times that of black and white flower milk, and the content of minerals and vitamins is also dozens of times that of black and white flower milk and human milk. Buffalo milk is rich in flavor, low cholesterol, rich in vitamins and trace elements, high casein content, and can be used for deep processing of high-quality dairy products; the contents of iron and vitamin An in buffalo milk are about 80 and 40 times higher than those in black and white milk, respectively. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, milk accounts for 82.7 per cent of global milk consumption, followed by buffalo milk (13.3 per cent), goat milk (3.6 per cent) and camel milk (0.4 per cent). Domestic buffalo milk is a consumer market of 5.32 million tons, with a production scale of only 200000 tons at present.

In terms of channels, milk delivery to households has an average daily allocation of 500000 fresh milk; in terms of student milk channels, it accounts for 1 million stable student milk users; 50 days before the launch of the online cloud flash payment platform, there are 20,000 new users and 3500 UnionPay members. the value of 60,000 new orders is nearly 9 million yuan, and the trading volume of residential distribution has exceeded the trading volume of Huang's original online channels.

Under the background of the sinking of the company's advantageous regional channels, the development of Waifu regional channels (such as the residential distribution business in Yunnan, Hunan and Guizhou), the continuous ploughing of online "community + live broadcast + e-commerce", and the increase in the proportion of low temperature products and buffalo milk products, as well as the expansion of student milk collection business, we believe that the company's dairy sector will continue to maintain an annual growth rate of 15% and 30% in the next three years. In 2023, 202112022Universe will contribute 2.78 billion yuan to revenue of 2.808 Universe 22.2 million respectively.

Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the stable development of the company's main dairy industry and the broadening of the digital information business. It is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of 26.07 billion yuan in 2022, with a corresponding EPS of 0.14 EPS and 0.18 PE, respectively, which is twice as much as that of 34-27-21. For the first time, coverage gives a "recommended" rating.

Risk hints: major changes in industry policy, lower-than-expected development of dairy products, and food safety issues.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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