Photoinitiator industry leader, the performance of endogenous growth power. The company is the largest domestic production, the most complete variety of photoinitiator production suppliers, the industry market share of about 1x3, now has 184,1173, TPO, TPO-L, 369,907, DETX, ITX and other mainstream photoinitiator products mass production capacity, products cover domestic and foreign well-known light-cured coatings, ink enterprises. At the same time, the company is distributed in Shandong, Jiangsu, Hunan, Inner Mongolia and other places to fully ensure a stable supply of products. The company's chairman and core R & D personnel are majors in chemistry and have deep understanding and practical experience in fine chemical synthesis technology. the company now has 59 patents, presided over and participated in the formulation of industry standards. In the past five years, the company's revenue and return net profit have increased rapidly, with revenue CAGR 24% and CAGR 41% in 2014-19. In 2020, due to the weakening market demand, coupled with the increase in supply, the high price of photoinitiator fell rapidly, the volume price fell, and the company's performance declined in the first three quarters. At present, the company's product prices have returned to historic lows, and with the recovery of downstream demand and the release of new production capacity, the company's performance is expected to return to strong growth.
The demand for initiator continues to grow with the light curing market, and the trend of industry concentration to the leader is obvious. UV-curing technology has the advantages of fast curing speed, environment-friendly, wide applicability, economy and energy saving. Light-curing coatings, inks, adhesives and other substitutes for traditional solvent-based coatings, inks and adhesives are the major development trend of the industry. As the core raw material of UV-curing formula, photoinitiator continues to grow due to the expansion of downstream market. The output of photoinitiator in China was about 11% in 2012-19. At present, the permeability of light curing technology in China is still low. Take UV coatings as an example, the permeability of UV coatings in China is less than 1%, which is much lower than the international average level of 3%, and there is much room for improvement in the future. Assuming that the permeability of UV paint in China reaches the international average level in the future, and the permeability of UV ink increases to 20%, the apparent demand for photoinitiator in China is expected to reach 46000 tons, which is about 3.5 times higher than the current level. With the continuous high pressure of domestic safety and environmental protection and the development of higher precision and cutting edge in the downstream field, higher requirements have been put forward for the R & D strength and product development strength of enterprises, and the trend of industry concentration to the leader is accelerating.
The strategic layout of the whole industry chain and the expansion of production capacity open the room for growth. While consolidating the market advantages in the field of photoinitiators, the company actively expands horizontally to light-cured monomers and resins, and at the same time promotes the development of downstream light-cured formula products with a full understanding of the properties of raw materials. in the future, the company will realize the layout of the whole industry chain and expand the incremental market. The company started a new round of capacity construction, with 9250 tons of photoinitiators and intermediates newly built in Inner Mongolia, 27000 tons of photoinitiators and 60,000 tons of monomers in Dongying, 10,000 tons of UV resin and 6000 tons of special UV formulations in Binzhou, Shandong, etc. With the orderly release of the new capacity, the company's growth space will be further opened.
Photoresist photoinitiator home-made forerunner, enter the electronic chemical market. In August this year, the company completed the acquisition of Dazheng Information and Dazheng New Materials, the former is implementing the project of special photosensitizer for microelectronic photoresist with an annual output of 600 tons, and the latter is implementing the project of kiloton photoresist. As the core raw material of photoresist, photosensitizer accounts for more than half of its cost. The market has been controlled by European, American, Japanese and Korean enterprises for a long time, and the demand for localization is urgent. Taking photosensitizer as the origin, the company develops and produces high-end photoresist and supporting materials together with upstream and downstream enterprises to open up the photoresist industry chain. With the advancement of the localization process of downstream wafers and photoresist, the clamping position of the company at the end of the core material will bring new development opportunities to the company.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company's 2020-22 operating income is expected to be 9.98,13.40,1.817 billion yuan, and the mother net profit is 1.45,1.94 and 270 million yuan, corresponding to PE 34X, 25X, 18X, the company, as the leader in the photoinitiator industry, continues to benefit from the growth of the light-curing market, and the horizontal and vertical extension of the industrial chain will broaden the company's long-term growth space and give it an "overweight" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: demand is lower than expected; product prices fall further; schedule of new projects is not as expected; exchange rate risk
