Main points of investment:
Company announcement: it intends to issue additional shares to no more than 35 investors, with a total amount of no more than 3.472 billion yuan, no more than 184 million shares and no more than 20% of the total share capital.
Comment
Raise 74.1% of the funds for Compaq overseas clinical and registration. The funds raised are calculated on the basis of the 20201208 closing price of 42.58 yuan per share, and the issued share capital is about 81.54 million shares, accounting for about 8.8% of the total share capital before the issue. The purpose of the issuing funds: 1) 608 million yuan for the international III clinical trial and registration and listing of Kangbexipu injection, accounting for 17.5% of the total. 2) 1.965 billion yuan for the international III clinical trial and registration for RVO/DME indications, accounting for 56.6% of the total. 3) the chemical raw material drug base construction is 766 million yuan, accounting for 22.1% of the total. 4) the genuine medicinal material planting base and seedling center project is 133 million yuan, accounting for 3.8%.
Compaq overseas clinical progress as scheduled, wAMD indications are expected to complete clinical trials in 2021. Cobb wAMD adaptation international multicenter III trial officially began in Europe and the United States in May 2018 and was completed in December 2019. The 36-week primary end-point visit of all subjects was completed in September 2020, and the company expects to complete 96-week trial visit by the end of 2021. In addition, the special trial scheme review (Special Protocol Assessment) of phase III clinical trials for RVO/DME indications has been approved by FDA. We expect that Compaq's overseas market R & D and sales will be gradually realized, and the company's valuation will be more flexible.
Profit forecast and investment advice. Compaq sales return to growth, overseas clinical progress smoothly, we believe that Compaq has a broad market space, the company has the potential to become a domestic ophthalmic medicine leader. We estimate that the EPS from 2020 to 2022 will be 0.85,1.05,1.32 yuan respectively. Considering the slow growth of Kanghong Pharmaceutical's chemical medicine and proprietary Chinese medicine revenue, and referring to the comparable company's valuation, we give it 60-65 times PE in 2021, with a reasonable value range of 63.00-68.25 yuan and a rating of "better than the market".
Risk hint. Compaq sales fell short of expectations; sales of chemical drugs and proprietary Chinese medicines fell sharply; Compaq overseas clinical failure.
