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荣盛发展(002146)10月销售数据点评:销售发力 银十表现亮眼

天風證券 ·  Nov 3, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Event: The company announced the October business summary. In October, the contract sales amount was 11.157 billion yuan, YOY +21.87%, and the contract sales area was 1,027,400 square meters, YOY +11.63%; the cumulative contract sales amount from January to October was 84.869 billion yuan, YOY +10.24%, and the cumulative contract sales area was 7.7416 million square meters, and YOY +6.67%. Sales were strong. In October, Yinshi achieved a contract sales amount of 11.157 billion yuan, YOY +21.87%, an increase of 48.6% over the previous month; achieved a contract sales area of 1,027,400 square meters, YOY +11.63%, an increase of +37.8% over the previous month; and the corresponding average sales price was 10,859 yuan/square meter, an increase of 786 yuan/square meter over the previous month. The cumulative contract sales amount for January-October was 84.869 billion yuan, YOY +10.24%, an increase of 1.57 pct over the previous month; the cumulative contract sales area was 7.7416 million square meters, YOY +6.67%, an increase of 0.72 pct over the previous month's growth rate; corresponding to the average cumulative sales price of 10,963 yuan/square meter, YOY +3.35%. The company's sales side has begun to gain strength. The year-on-year and month-on-month data for October have achieved a cumulative total of 70.1% of the sales target (121 billion yuan), and the degree of completion is slightly lower. Judging from the situation of the previous year, the fourth quarter was still an important point for the company to increase its promotion efforts. Last year, sales in November and December alone reached 33.3% of the year, so there is still confidence in achieving the annual sales target. No new projects were added in a single month. The new projects were mainly the second- and third-tier cities in the Bohai Rim, 51 new projects were added in January-October. The new projects covered an area of 2,6751,000 square meters (YOY -35.6%), an additional planned construction area of 5,747,400 square meters (YOY -30.7%), the total land price of 24.310 billion yuan (YOY -7.1%); the corresponding equity area was 225.50 (YOY -42.3%), equity land price RMB 21,545 billion (-10.5%). In terms of construction and price, the equity ratio was 84.1% and 88.6% respectively, down from 93.2% and 91.9% for the full year of '19. Based on the total land price scale, in terms of the distribution of urban energy levels, second-tier cities: third-tier cities: fourth-tier and fifth-tier cities = 52%: 35%: 13%. Looking at the distribution of urban areas, the Bohai Rim: Yangtze River Delta: West: Central = 50%: 28%: 18%: 4%. The new plots are mainly second- and third-tier cities in the Bohai Rim region. The energy level of land acquisition cities increased, and the cumulative land acquisition efforts and equity land acquisition efforts in January-October were 28.64% and 25.39% respectively, slightly higher than the 25.55% and 23.48% land acquisition efforts for the full year of '19. The cumulative floor price of new projects added in January-October was 4,230 yuan/square meter (YOY +34.1%), and the cumulative floor price/average sales price was 38.58%, higher than the level of 29.62% for the whole year of '19. The increase in average floor price was mainly due to the increase in the city level of the company's new projects in 2019 compared to the increase in the city level in 2019. Among them, the share of five-tier cities fell to 1.32% from 5.92% in the same period last year. Investment suggestions: The company's sales side has begun to gain strength. The year-on-year and month-on-month data for October are outstanding. The enthusiasm for land acquisition is high, and the quality of land storage is continuously optimized. We are optimistic about the company's promotion of new land storage in 2020, and we expect the company's sales to grow steadily in 2020. We expect the company's main revenue in 2020-2022 to be 892.64, 1101.87, and 134.722 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit of 105.15, 128.72, and 15.671 billion yuan; corresponding EPS is 2.42, 2.96, and 3.60 yuan/share, corresponding to PE 2.90, 2.37, and 1.95 times, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: Real estate policies have been drastically tightened, housing prices have fallen sharply, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei sales have fallen short of expectations

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