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吉鑫科技(601218):海上风电与机组大型化受益者

中信建投 ·  Jul 10, 2014 12:00  · Researches

The company issued a semi-annual report forecast that the net profit attributable to shareholders in the half year was expected to increase by 500%-550% compared to the same period last year. The main reason is that along with the gradual warming of the wind power industry, the company's sales revenue has increased, and the level of profit has increased. Fundamentals are reversed, and performance elasticity is huge. The company's reported net profit is expected to be about 2795 to 30.74 million yuan. As the wind power industry recovers and continues to rise, the company's sales volume, gross margin, and net profit margin will continue to grow. Wind power OEMs have a long inventory cycle. Although the wind power industry reached an inflection point last year, OEMs are still in the process of removing inventory, and it wasn't until this year that they began the inventory addition cycle. Due to the impact of OEMs' inventory cycles, the company's main products, parts such as fans, wheels, etc., have seen a reversal in quantitative profit since the beginning of this year, and the upward flexibility is greater than that of OEMs. It is expected that its share in overseas markets will continue to expand. The company's largest customer is GE Wind, whose main market is in the US. In 2013, due to the expiration of the PTC policy, only about 1 GW of new installed capacity in the US was about 1 GW, but it has now been successfully extended. The new installed capacity in 2014 will return to the normal level of about 10 GW. At the same time, Vestas divested its foundry last year, so it will gradually increase procurement volume from the company. The main beneficiaries of the trend of large-scale fans are whether in China or globally. The trend of gradually increasing the average stand-alone capacity of new fans is very obvious. Larger fans place higher demands on the ability of suppliers to supply large, high-quality ductile iron parts in batches, and the company has a core competitive advantage that is difficult for other competitors to surpass in the field of large-scale castings. Potential beneficiaries of offshore wind power development Offshore wind power In order to reduce costs, the unit capacity of a single unit is much larger than that of onshore wind power, and the stand-alone capacity will generally exceed 3 MW. The requirements for equipment, technology, yield, and quality control of suppliers for oversized castings have been greatly increased, so the company has almost no direct competitors in China, yet compared to foreign competitors, the company also has a great cost advantage. The company will be a beneficiary of the rapid development of domestic and global offshore wind power.

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