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紫天科技(300280):字节广告系统赋能 精品休闲游戏迎黄金成长期

國泰君安 ·  Nov 9, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Guide to this report: The company's building advertising business is developing steadily, and its Hippo Games is expected to enjoy the market dividends of accelerated monetization of boutique casual games using a powerful advertising system with massive engines. Key investment points: First coverage target price of 90.70 yuan, increased holdings rating. The company's hippopotamus game is expected to enjoy the rapid development dividends of built-in advertising volume and price by leveraging ByteDance's massive engine with strong distribution efficiency. The EPS for 2020-22 is expected to be 1.55/2.83/4.34 yuan, and the target price is 90.70 yuan. For the first time, it has been covered by an increase in holdings rating. With the support of algorithms, the advertising value of massive engines has accelerated, and boutique casual game suppliers have ushered in a period of rapid growth. Since 2018, Voodoo and ByteDance have enhanced the monetization capacity of casual games through built-in advertising models, and the casual game industry has ushered in a dividend period of rapid development. Thanks to the strong distribution efficiency of ByteDance's massive engine, since 2020, major indie games and major game manufacturers have entered massive purchase traffic. In addition, high-LTV products such as Internet education, fresh e-commerce, and internet finance have also increased their investment in massive engines, leading to a continuous increase in advertising location demand and CPM within the ByteDance system. The advertising value of boutique casual games that can bring considerable advertising locations to a large number of engines is expected to experience a sharp rise in volume and price. “Multiple products+rapid iteration+bytedance traffic monetization dividends+Xiaomi's acceleration in going overseas” to create a high-quality casual game developer. The core competitiveness of the company's hippopotamus games lies in: 1) sufficient number of products; 2) rich product types and rapid iteration; 3) in-depth cooperation with ByteDance to seize top traffic dividends and accumulate rich development experience in byte-based traffic games; 4) Xiaomi's overseas expansion accelerates; it is hoped that it will continue to benefit from the industry dividends of ByteDance's continuous increase in advertising value. Catalysts: casual game advertising prices continue to rise, ByteDance system user time growth Risk warning: Internet advertising business expansion falls short of expectations, new product development and operation falls short of expectations, policy risks

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